Mixed Conditions

Jonathan Carr
By November 15, 2021 11:58

Mixed Conditions

Discussion: You all felt the cold front that came through Saturday night. That there was lightning and hail was a strong indicator of how cold the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere are becoming. It didn’t require much lift for moisture to condense, produce thermal friction, and fall as hail just ahead of the front. We’ll stay in the wake of the front with strong W/NW cold flow over NJ and a generally chillier air mass today and tomorrow. I see some of the NWNJ elevations saw some snow overnight. Winter is rapidly approaching. Super early sunsets and the recent cold is putting me in a wintry mood for sure. High pressure has driven deep into the SE US (centered near NOLA now) and is reinforcing the W/NW flow. This high will then track E across the SE US towards Bermuda and set NJ up with warmer/milder SW flow for Wednesday and Thursday. It should feel unseasonably mild on those days, especially Thursday when much of the region could flirt with reaching 70. We’re then looking at another strong cold front Thursday night into Friday morning, this time with the high diving closer to our W. This will mean more of a N/NW flow for NJ Friday into Saturday rather than a W/NW flow. Ultimately that means that we should experience the coldest air mass yet this Friday and Saturday. We then moderate back Sunday with increasing clouds/fog ahead of an expected unsettled Thanksgiving week.

I like the synoptic storm signal for just before Thanksgiving however I don’t like the temperature profile for New Jersey. I think some of New England, EPA and NY State have a great chance at seeing snow, possibly even some of NWNJ. But for most of NJ, we are likely looking at a mostly rain, possibly ending as snow situation for the period just before Thanksgiving. This could no doubt throw a wrench into travel (even if just rain/wind ending as flakes) so please plan safely and accordingly. Maybe light accumulations for NWNJ/elevations and just conversational along 95 and SE. The ocean is very warm and in this modeled scenario, there is a large onshore flow component. I am much more interested in the pattern setting up for Thanksgiving into December. I see blocking (-NAO) setting up which could spill numerous troughs into the E US. This would set the entire region colder for anything that tried to spin up the front of a trough. It might also set the lake effect snow making machine off (flurries/showers/squalls out of the NW). So…not seeing a major snow storm the day before Thanksgiving (like some of the models flew off with last week)…more like a rain for most/ending as snow for some (NWNJ) situation. But definitely seeing a more wintry pattern begin with the general Thanksgiving time period. One last transient warm snap this Wed-Thurs.   

Monday (Nov 15) high temperatures should struggle to break 50. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the W/NW. This should produce colder wind chill factors. Overnight lows should fall to near-30 for most areas, likely closer to 40 for the immediate ECNJ/SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (Nov 16) high temperatures should again reach near-50 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds could still be strong out of the W/NW through AM hours but should subside by afternoon/evening hours. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to near-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (Nov 17) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to mid-60s N to S. Skies should be mostly sunny with a mild feel. Winds should be light out of the S/SE (could keep immediate SNJ coast areas cooler). Overnight lows should range from near-40 to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (Nov 18) high temperatures should reach well into the 60s for most areas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 70 broken in the traditionally warmer locations of NJ. Skies should gradually transition from mostly sunny to cloudy throughout the day. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 as precipitation likely moves in.

Friday (Nov 19) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 40s. Early AM rain should give way to mostly clear skies. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates another clear, but colder, Saturday followed by a milder and cloudier Sunday. A synoptic storm signal exists for just before Thanksgiving. Looks like mostly rain for NJ possibly ending as snow for NNJ elevations. A truer wintry pattern/signal is showing starting Thanksgiving weekend and into December. I’ll be watching this period closely.

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Jonathan Carr
By November 15, 2021 11:58