Mixed Conditions

Jonathan Carr
By November 29, 2021 11:29

Mixed Conditions

Discussion: The W US should see a prolonged ridge setup this week.  Downstream, the E US should see a series of quick-swinging troughs pass through. With no high latitude blocking in the N Atlantic, any surface systems will be quick moving but are still capable of producing at least light precipitation. They just likely won’t wrap up into something larger. With a colder look to the mid-levels (the troughs of cold air) and the Atlantic Ocean still at 50F+, any precipitation would likely be split into snow for NWNJ and rain for SENJ with a snow/rain line somewhere in CNJ (on either side of I-95/NJTP). There’s a quick mover possible on Tuesday and another Friday PM. The weekend looks tranquil ahead of a more organized synoptic storm signal Sunday-Tuesday (Dec 5-7)…which currently looks modeled a little warm for NJ. This signal has been alternating cold and warm on guidance so will have to see how models handle mid-range forecasting period this week. An expected phase 6 Nina should take us colder after the Dec 5-7 storm signal of interest (after a few milder days next week). Things are just getting started winter-wise. Many of you have seen your first flakes, even coatings, already but we have a long way to go. Let’s finish fall first.  

Monday (Nov 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to mid-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Can’t rule out some more light snow action, especially for NWNJ, through Tuesday morning.

Tuesday (Nov 30) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s again. Some AM light snow is possible, especially for NWNJ. Otherwise skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (Dec 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny but increase in cloud coverage through PM hours. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should rise just above freezing as periods of rain likely move through.

Thursday (Dec 2) high temperatures should reach well into the 50s for the mildest day of the week. Skies should be mostly cloudy with isolated showers possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s.

Friday (Dec 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s and likely earlier than afternoon. Temps should then fall through PM hours, as NW winds pick up, with periods of rain likely into overnight hours. Temps could fall enough overnight for wintry precipitation, especially NNJ elevations. Will have to revisit in a few days.

An early look at the weekend indicates more highs in the 40s and lows just below freezing for most. Watching Dec 5-7 (Sunday-Tuesday) as the next synoptic storm signal capable of producing snow. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By November 29, 2021 11:29