Mixed Conditions
Discussion: NJ is currently sitting under the bottom of a flat trough of cold air which extends into SE Canada…maybe just W of the bottom of it but still just inside the colder zone. This configuration is supporting W/NW or NW flow aloft while the surface sees a milder air mass out of the W. This is why daytime hours have been allowed to spike into the 40s while overnight temps dive back into the teens statewide. It’s not exactly a torch pattern or a January thaw. We’ll stay positioned like this for a few days as a few clipper systems ride the W/NW flow. From Tuesday through Thursday, the clippers will be ripped apart by the Appalachian Mountains and mostly track JUST N of NJ. NJ is subject to some higher W and/or W/NW winds this week associated with the flow pattern. A few gusty days/nights can be expected. Any energy that is allowed through the Apps (lower chance) could possibly impact parts of NJ with flurries and/or snow showers with little-to-no accumulation. Daytime hours will be too warm for even trace stickage. But overnight hours are game for anywhere light snow falls. Otherwise, expect a cold “it feels like it wants to snow” feel, especially for NWNJ. We then arrive at the weekend where a very flat zonal pattern takes shape across the US. The system that is expected to bring MUCH NEEDED precipitation this weekend will literally track from W to E with a linear precipitation shield through NJ and most of the N Mid-Atlantic US. There will be a boundary laid from W to E somewhere across NNJ. Very cold to the N of this boundary and very mild to the S. This could mean SNJ spikes to the 50s this weekend while NNJ remains cold enough for a wintry mix. Exact low track latitude and precipitation types for NJ are far too uncertain as of now. Need another 24 hours of guidance before beginning to lock into any ideas. Right now, the GFS is wintry, the Canadian is like “what ice/snow?” and the Euro is a torch statewide. In all cases, wintry precipitation stays N of I-78. But there will likely be precipitation in one form between Friday and Sunday with a lull expected Saturday PM into Sunday morning. The precipitation type expectations will be ironed out last, likely by Wednesday.
In English: Milder days this week but still cold at night. Light “not a big deal” snow is possible here and there especially overnight in NWNJ through about Thursday. Otherwise, all stay dry. Watching the weekend for at least rain (higher confidence) and possibly some mixed wintry precipitation N of I-78 (lower confidence). Need a day or two more to figure it out.
Forecast
Monday (Jan 27) high temperatures maxed in the 42-47 range for most NJ locations. Skies should remain mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy at times out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 25-35 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Can’t rule out flurries and snow showers, especially for NWNJ elevations. But little-to-no accumulation.
Tuesday (Jan 28) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to lower-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Morning flurries and snow showers are possible for NWNJ areas with little-to-no accumulation. Such could reach lower into NJ but a lesser chance. Winds should be breezy, even gusty at times, out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 20-30 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with more trace/light snow possible for NWNJ.
Wednesday (Jan 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most NJ locations. SNJ/SENJ might run to the upper-40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with more snow flurries/showers possible, again favoring NWNJ but with little-to-no accumulation. Ground temps would prevent accumulation during peak daytime hours but before dawn and after dusk are cold enough for stickage. Winds should remain breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 15-25 as breezy/gusty winds veer to the W/NW.
Thursday (Jan 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 30s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should relax a little but remain breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from lower-20s to lower-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Friday through Sunday (Jan 31-Feb 2) surrounds the synoptic signal we’ve discussed for this weekend. Models are still very uncertain on low track and p-types. We can start to deduce that precipitation could move in as early as Friday morning, take a break at some point between Saturday and Sunday, and then return later Sunday to close out. Daytime temps would be too warm for snow. Overnight temps are a different story – cold enough to support wintry precip types further S in NJ. We can also deduce that areas N of I-80 are the most favored for a wintry precipitation type despite the icy transitions possible further S (maybe down to I-78 or I-195) during overnight hours. It will a day or two to iron this mess out to the point of a forecast. But for now, at least a ice/rain situation is possible between Friday-Sunday with I-80 likely dividing the ice and rain. Snow would likely only be at the very start and end of the entire event. More to come. Have a great e safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC