Mixed Conditions (Dec 28-Jan 1)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr December 28, 2020 11:46

Mixed Conditions (Dec 28-Jan 1)

Discussion: Today (Monday) should remain relatively mild and unsettled with conditions improving/temperatures dropping this evening/overnight. A large area of high pressure should then dominate the entire E US for Tuesday and Wednesday with colder temperatures and clear skies. Thursday and Friday look very unsettled and mild as a NW-tracking low warm sectors NJ with clouds and rain. New Years Day, especially PM hours, looks much more unsettled than New Years Eve. New Years eve might just be a few showers along a mostly dry frontal passage. That might bleed a little into Saturday but then the rest of the weekend looks colder as we eye up our next synoptic storm signal Jan 3-4. The downstream teleconnections (AO and NAO). remain favorable for snow. The upstream tellies (PNA and further up EPO) are more neutral. This is still a pattern capable of producing a winter storm IMO for the E US coast. Models are all over the place for surface output but they seem to be honing in on some kind of coastal disturbance Jan 3-4 with adequate cold nearby. Beyond that, there is a lot of Arctic air expected to spill down into the US in January and plenty of blocking to our NE to slow the systems down. It will be all about the timing whether or not we get another snow event soon. To the people claiming “winter is over” just stop. You know the analogy I like to use (baseball game). We’re in the second inning of winter at most with a long ballgame ahead of us.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (Dec 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most areas, maybe just into the 50s for SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few showers around. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most. Immediate coastal areas of SENJ could hang just above freezing.

Tuesday (Dec 29) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 30s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-teens to lower-20s from elevations to sea.

Wednesday (Dec 30) high temperatures should reach near-40. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from elevations to sea.

Thursday (Dec 31) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from elevations to sea.

Friday (Jan 1) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to sea. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be breezy out of the E. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to sea.

An early look at the weekend indicates New Years Day rain clearing out and temperatures returning to colder more seasonable values. Jan 3-4 is the next potential coastal storm that I’m watching. I should have a much better idea on that later this week. Have a great week, a happy new year, and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr December 28, 2020 11:46