Mixed Conditions Expected (March 8-10)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 7, 2019 21:14

Mixed Conditions Expected (March 8-10)

Discussion: Real quick tonight (Thursday night) is already another cold one but likely the last really cold one for a while. A weak wave should move through the Mid-Atlantic US on Friday. This could produce light mixed precipitation across SNJ with little-to-no accumulations expected given the colder air aloft/warmer surface temperature profile. It honestly looks very dry and minuscule with most precipitation passing S of NJ. Saturday looks pretty dry as stronger synoptic system tracks through the Great Lakes into Canadian high pressure. It’s a similar setup as our last NNJ snow storm only with an even-further track NW. By midnight Saturday night frontal precipitation should arrive and clear out by daybreak on Sunday. During this period extreme NWNJ/NNJ could start out as mixed wintry precipitation before eventually changing over to plain rain like the rest of NJ. The rest of Sunday then looks fairly mild with NNJ into the upper-40s and CNJ/SNJ well into the 50s. NJ will be in the synoptic warm sector Sunday so I wouldn’t be surprised to see 60 somewhere in the expected warmer interior CNJ/SNJ areas. A cold front should then push through Monday morning and chill the region down through Wednesday morning. Then mild air should surge in from the SW and dominate the pattern from Thursday through at least Saturday.

Friday (March 8) high temperatures should range from mid-to-upper 30s for most. Some CNJ/SNJ locations could pop into the lower-40s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with mixed precipitation possible after late-morning. Anything from rain mixed with conversational flurries to a more robust snow shower is possible across the entire region. With surface temperatures above freezing accumulations would struggle. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (March 9) high temperatures should reach into the 40s statewide. Some interior CNJ/SNJ locations might flirt with 50. The immediate coast however should hold near the 40-degree ocean temperatures. That’s because winds should be light out of the E/NE (off the ocean). Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 NNJ to SNJ as overnight rain approaches around midnight.

Sunday (March 10) high temperatures should reach well into the 50s for most. 60 is not out of the question for isolated CNJ/SNJ locations. NNJ elevations however could hang in the 40s. Rain should fall region-wide early. There’s a small chance Sussex County sees some early-AM hour mixed wintry precipitation. Rain should end by daybreak with skies and conditions improving throughout the day. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to lower-40s.

An early look at next week indicates a milder Monday (highs in the 50s) then a cooler Tuesday-Wednesday (highs in the 40s) followed by highs in the 50s to close out the week. I imagine a few more transient cold periods are possible throughout the rest of March. Mild periods should become more common after this Wednesday barring a freak late-March Arctic Outbreak. Everyone please have a great weekend and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 7, 2019 21:14