Mixed Conditions Expected

Discussion: Most are down into the single digits and teens already tonight. High pressure is moving through and clear skies/lighter winds will allow radiational cooling to do it’s thing. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be slightly milder than Monday but still kind of cold. Starting Wednesday the high will be offshore providing milder return flow and we’ll have another anomalous temperature spike for Wednesday and Thursday associated with an E US ridge. A cold front will then push through late Thursday night/Friday morning with rain likely and thunderstorms possible. I’ll cover this in more detail as we closer approach. Friday night then looks cold again but this should be transient. The heel of a weak trough will push through with NW upper-level flow chilling us back down to the teens/20s Friday night into Saturday morning. The weekend then looks moderated with highs in the 40s and lows down to 20s/30s. The weekend, however, should be a slow and gradual build towards milder conditions next week as ridging re-establishes across the E US. I don’t think we’ll be tracking much snow for the rest of February, but I can’t rule out a wintry March at this point. Some longer-range guidance (which I can’t stand) like the Euro weeklies and CRAS are suggesting March could be wintry. I can’t stand it because the world of weather is a purely chaotic and fluid environment. That’s why I take every 7 days at a time. If you follow me, you know that I relate winter to a 9-inning baseball game. March is the 8-9^th inning. While higher sun angle and general climatology in March generally fight snow accumulations (it has to snow hard and at night), we’ve seen it before in 2014 and 2018…it’s going to snow where it wants to snow. For now, enjoy the milder conditions.

Tuesday (Feb 15) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 30s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s from N to S.

Wednesday (Feb 16) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should start breezy and possibly become gusty out of the S by afternoon. Overnight lows should stay above 40 statewide.

Thursday (Feb 17) high temperatures should reach into the mid-60s for most. Coastal areas could hang in the mid-to-upper 50s from marine influence. Skies should increase in cloud coverage throughout the day with rain possible by late-afternoon/evening. Heavier rain and possibly thunderstorms are then possible overnight as a cold front moves through by morning. Overnight lows should drop into the upper-40s/lower-50s for most areas.

Friday (Feb 18) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from N to S. Interior CNJ/SNJ could reach closer to 60. I’m thinking high temps will likely be reached during AM hours with a gradual chill down through the rest of the day as colder air returns behind the cold front. Skies should improve from morning to afternoon followed by a colder overnight with lows back to the teens/20s.

An early look at the weekend indicates clear conditions with afternoon highs in the 40s and overnight lows in the 20s/30s. Let’s see how it looks in a few days. I’ll likely do an article for Thursday night/Friday morning thunderstorm potential Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™