Mixed Conditions Likely (July 31-Aug 2)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 31, 2020 11:53

Mixed Conditions Likely (July 31-Aug 2)

Discussion: This weekend we will have a small developing ridge over the E US which won’t fully establish until Sunday. Today our rain is pushing away to the SE of NJ and conditions should improve during PM hours tonight (Friday). Saturday looks like highs in the 80s with dew point temperatures in the upper-60s. While not total relief, if should feel much better than highs in the 90s with dews in the 70s. Saturday looks like the best day of the weekend. On Sunday we should see an increase in humidity with the established small east coast ridge. This will bring back the chance for showers and thunderstorms along with the more relentless humidity. Throughout much of next week, a central US trough will have control of our region with general upper-level SW flow. This should push the east coast ridge out to sea as Isaias remnants curves along the east coast and heads away to the NE. The anti-cyclonic flow of the Bermuda high should act as a conveyor belt to assist the system in it’s re-curve from tradewinds (E flow) to the mid-latitude westerlies (W flow). It is yet TBD whether Isaias remnants will pass directly over NJ or just offshore of NJ. But in either case the system will likely be weakened by OBX land interaction. Therefore, I’m thinking routine coastal low/storm conditions are likely. Drenching rain (because of tropical core/origin) and moderate winds mainly for coastal areas. The fast-moving nature of the system should keep coastal flooding concerns to just the minor category. With that said, please do not panic if you see tropical storm warnings issued for conditions we commonly see with generic coastal lows and storms. The NWS NHC will only do this because it is a named system. I will have a more detailed article about Isaias later today.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (July 31) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas. We had a lot of rain this morning especially for CNJ/SNJ. This rain should push away and clear out by late-afternoon (SENJ last). Conditions should improve tonight with some clouds lingering around. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to sea.

Saturday (Aug 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most areas. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with less humidity (manageable not relentless). Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from near-70 to mid-70s from elevations to sea.

Sunday (Aug 2) high temperatures should reach near-90. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with noticeably increasing/returning humidity. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely but not an all-day washout. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from near-70 to mid-70s from elevations to sea.

An early look at next week indicates Isaias remnants moving through in the Monday-Tuesday window (detailed article coming later today). For the rest of next week, I am seeing highs only reaching the 80s but with humidity still around. Not as bad as it has been. But with the humidity comes the chance for isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms on any given day. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 31, 2020 11:53