Mixed-Weather Expected (Sept 9-11)

While some rain is expected this weekend, most of it should fall during overnight hours sparing “most” daytime hours. Let’s break it down…

Nerdy Disco: A warm front should move through the region from S to N late Friday night into Saturday morning. Rain and thunderstorms could accompany this front but should end sometime Saturday AM. That will then place New Jersey in the warm sector of a synoptic low pressure system passing through Canada for most of Saturday from late-morning through evening hours. Therefore, expect hazy, hot and humid conditions on Saturday with a small chance for isolated-to-scattered rain and thunderstorms that form in the Canadian cyclone’s warm sector in the form of a pre-frontal trough. Winds should be noticeable from the S, especially along the coast, until the cold front moves through Saturday night into Sunday morning. Rain and possibly embedded thunderstorms are possible ahead and along that cold front but the best thunderstorm dynamics exist further to our N/NE in New England. Once the front clears through Sunday morning, the rest of Sunday looks pretty good with NW flow and lower temperatures/humidity. Model guidance is pretty unanimous in clearing everything out by about 8AM Sunday morning.

Friday (Sept 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most with interior CNJ/SNJ likely breaking 90. Heat indices could approach/reach 100 so please stay hydrated if you’re outside. Skies should be partly sunny and humid. Isolated-t0-scattered rain and thunderstorms are possible (hit or miss – most should luck out) between afternoon and overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall only into the 70s for most with the NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the 60s.

Saturday (Sept 10) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most with interior CNJ/SNJ likely breaking 90 again. Therefore, heat indices should also approach/reach 100 again. Early morning hours could feature rain and thunderstorms along the warm front. Eventually (once the warm front is through – thinking by mid-to-late morning), skies should return to partly sunny with noticeably elevated humidity through the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are then possible heading into overnight hours with rain becoming more widespread along the cold front overnight. Winds should be out of the S/SW, lighter for interior regions and gustier (up to 20mph) along the coast. Overnight lows should fall only into the 70s for most with the NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the 60s.

Sunday (Sept 11) high temperatures should reach the low-80s for most with NNJ elevations likely topping out in the upper-70s. Let’s give it until 8AM for remnant cold frontal rain to clear out. Otherwise, skies should be mostly sunny with reduced humidity (not low humidity). We might have to wait until Sunday night/Monday for the full reduction in humidity to occur. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with coastal regions hanging onto 60s.

An early look at next week indicates much cooler conditions eventually. Monday and Tuesday should stay kind of warm but humidity shouldn’t be uncomfortable. By mid-week, we’re talking highs just into the 70s/lows in the 40s for NNJ elevations. For everyone else, highs in the 70s/lows in the 50s. We’re probably looking at another frontal passage between early and mid-week which could feature some rain and storms. Let’s revisit that Sunday evening.

I took the above photo in Ocean County last year (around this time). Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™