Mixed Weekend Conditions

Discussion: The upper levels for the next week or so appear mundane with zonal flow and only slightly positive geopotential height anomalies. This should allow for a seasonably average set of temperatures with only a few showers here and there. All eyes this weekend are on tomorrow (Saturday) and the rain potential for such. A weak coastal is expected to track northward from OBX tonight through tomorrow and meet up with a frontal system by Saturday night. The weak coastal will have its own rainfall and impact NJ from Saturday AM into Saturday afternoon. There might then be a clearing Saturday PM before the frontal system arrives. However, the coastal and frontal systems might tug from each other and generate pockets of subsidence (where little to no rain could fall). So even though there’s a good chance for rain in NJ this Saturday, it appears very spotty and uncertain as to exact locations. For example, the coastal might only affect ENJ and leave WNJ dry/etc. Then the frontal system might fizzle out to just drizzle by the time it pushes across NJ. I’d expect at least periods of drizzle but also periods of steadier rain depending on weak coastal storm track and banding. I wish I could do better for you but it’s a system of weak dynamics where little changes could leave you wet with your neighbor dry and vice versa. Next week then looks good with the SW quadrant of a broad area of high-pressure keeping NJ dry. We might see some onshore flow build from it later towards the weekend. I am watching next weekend very closely as I have BBQ interests in play. Models have been suggesting another weak and disorganized coastal floating through/around but this has been very inconsistent on the guidance. I will check back in a few days with a much better look at MDW.

Friday (May 19) high temperatures are hanging in the 60s near the ocean but are into the 70s for most other NJ locations. As of this afternoon (Friday), skies are improving with more sun than clouds vs this morning’s cloudy start. Winds should remain light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as rain approaches Saturday.

Saturday (May 20) high temperatures should reach the upper-60s/lower-70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with period of rain likely for at least daytime hours. Conditions should improve by late evening, possibly earlier. It looks like a lighter rain/drizzle should be the main theme with smaller isolated periods of heavy rain here and there. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (May 21) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most NJ locations. Interior CNJ/SNJ would have the best chance to break 80. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from 50-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week indicates mostly 70s, maybe a few 80s, with great conditions leading up to the weekend. There’s a weak rain signal for Friday into Saturday which I’m watching very closely. So far it’s been inconsistently modeled so will check back in a few days. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™