Monday Thunderstorms

Jonathan Carr
By May 15, 2022 23:09

Monday Thunderstorms

Discussion: The bottom of a trough will swing through the Mid-Atlantic US tomorrow (Monday). That’s going to put a strong upper-jet over New Jersey in close timing with the end of peak diurnal surface heating from the sun. It should feel rather muggy during the day as we’re warm-sectored with S/SW winds. The more sun that can hit the ground (through any cloud debris), the more the atmosphere will destabilize.

The storm front should generally approach NWNJ/WNJ around 4pm and ENJ/SENJ around 7-8pm. So peak surface heating (noon to 4pm) will destabilize the environment ahead of the front, the shear between upper and lower jets will provide additional upward/downward dynamics, and then the front itself will provide the lifting mechanism.

If enough horizontal roll can form between the shearing layers then you simply need an updraft to stand the horizontal roll up into vertical roll. Adjacent horizontal roll will then dip down and touch the ground as a tornado. The dynamics for this to happen are ripe for this tomorrow, especially in EPA and NWNJ/WNJ. ENJ/SENJ could still see severe weather but likely less severe than points to the W due to marine influence and a slightly later time of storm front passage (when sun is on it’s way down).

After this moves through, the upper jet should flatten into a zonal pattern for this week before building another ridge back this weekend. At the surface, Tuesday will start a gradual build of warmer temperatures into the weekend. The colder pattern is gone for now, even for ECNJ/SENJ.

Still watching what the first tropical system of the year could do in the gulf for the following week…and how the remnants could affect the Mid-Atlantic US for Memorial Day Weekend. Do the remnants clear in time? Do they hang around into part of the weekend. Something else to track once through with tomorrow’s storm front.

In English: Tomorrow should feel muggy with mixed skies and breezy winds out of the S/SW through early afternoon. Thunderstorms, likely severe at times, should push through NJ between about 4pm and 9pm (NWNJ first/SENJ last). These thunderstorms should produce at least heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lightning for about an hour or so. Severe conditions (wind gusts of 58mph and larger hail) are less likely but still a good bet (more scattered than widespread). Tornadoes are a lower probability but still possible given the dynamics. I would not be surprised to see a few touchdowns in EPA from about noon to 5pm. For NJ, again…NWNJ/WNJ have better dynamics than ENJ/SENJ for tornadic activity. I’ll be tracking closely. Please have a great night and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By May 15, 2022 23:09