More Mixed Conditions (April 26-28)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 25, 2019 16:27

More Mixed Conditions (April 26-28)

Discussion: Some rain showers are moving across NJ right now (Thursday) and will continue this evening along a warm front. At some point early Friday the warm front will advance to our N and we’ll likely see a period of dry but mild and humid air mass (the warm sector). A cold front should then complete the SE quadrant sequence of the Norwegian Cyclone Model by Friday night/very early Saturday AM. Therefore I am expecting a final linear segment of downpours and thunderstorms in the 5-10pm window Friday evening. The dynamics exist for localized severe thunderstorm criteria being met but only strong thunderstorms are a better bet. By sunrise on Saturday it should be well-clear with cool and dry W/NW winds expected for much of Saturday. Sunday looks to start pretty good but another small and weak disturbance could bring more passing showers during PM hours. All this happens at the surface under a southern stream upper-level low phasing into a northern stream upper-level trough. The closed-off upper-level low should pass overhead of NJ during Saturday afternoon which is why Saturday will likely be the coolest day of the weekend. Upper-level heights are expected to rebuild for next week to allow warmer conditions despite the unsettled look.

Friday (April 26) high temperatures should reach into the mid-60s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ should push into the 70s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms possible especially during PM hours. Thunderstorms could reach severe criteria in localized instances Friday night. Winds should be light out of the SE for most—breezier for SENJ/ENJ coasts. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide.

Saturday (April 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s for most maybe low-60s for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most, possibly the mid-to-upper 30s for NNJ elevations.

Sunday (April 28) high temperatures should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with passing showers possible during afternoon/evening. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 NNJ to SNJ.  

An early look at next week indicates seasonably-average temperatures with a mixed bag of sun, clouds and passing spring showers. Not a washout week but certainly some nuisance periods of rain and maybe a thunderstorm here and there. It’s the season for it folks. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 25, 2019 16:27