More Transition (Oct 23-25)

Discussion: Hurricane Epsilon is currently churning in the Atlantic Ocean just to the E of Bermuda. It presents no threat to the US east coast aside from some far-reaching coastal rip currents. The most significant player for our region, in the near future, is the approaching cold front attached to a low that will track from the Great Lakes through SE Canada today (Fri) and tomorrow (Sat). By the way, parts of SE Canada should see snow from that. But the cold front should push through NJ during Saturday PM hours and transition us from the foggy/humid feel to a drier and cooler feel for Saturday night and Sunday. The front looks “mostly dry” but you cannot rule out a few scattered sprinkles. The cold period will be rather transient as temps look to rebound for Monday into next week. However there are even stronger cold shots in the mid-to-long range model guidance as some pretty strong highs are expected to drop out of Canada. If the upper level zonal flow persists they will be short lived as well. However we should expect the transient cold shots to trend colder and colder heading into November. This should be no surprise as we continue marching towards winter with daily diminishing daylight and climatologically lowering average temperatures. Next week looks unsettled.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (Oct 23) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should start foggy and cloudy then improve some by afternoon. I can’t commit to a total clear out but at least some breaks. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 50s.

Saturday (Oct 24) high temperatures should reach near-70. Skies should again start foggy but transition to mixed sun and clouds by afternoon. Scattered light rain showers are then possible later in the evening/overnight as the cold front pushes through. The front looks dry for 99% of NJ but can’t rule out some sprinkles. Winds should start out light out of the SW ahead of the front and then transition to N/NW behind the front. Overnight lows should range from 30s to 40s from elevations to sea.

Sunday (Oct 25) high temperatures should fail to escape the 50s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds for most. Rain is slightly more favored for SNJ than CNJ/NNJ but nothing crazy. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s.

An early look at next week indicates temperatures a little more seasonably average than this week (cooler). Tuesday-Wednesday and Friday look to be the most unsettled days as a few disturbances float through. Let’s see how it all looks on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™