More Transitional Conditions

Discussion: The models handled the last two days rather well. Specifically in the idea of all of NJ except for SENJ seeing the stronger storms Thursday and then only SENJ seeing some storms today. The storms have cleared the coast and we will now improve through tonight. The frontal boundary is moving through very slowly so relief (lower temps and lower humidity) will start in NWNJ (already underway), gradually push into the I-95/NJTP corridor (by/around midnight), and reach SENJ last (tomorrow morning). And that’s why there’s such a drastic range for overnight low temperatures tonight. Saturday looks like the cooler and drier feeling day of the weekend. The ahh, summer is almost over, kind of feel. Sunday will be back to a tropical feel as humidity invades. The general idea next week will be the tropical feel from about Monday-Thursday. Monday should see less chances of showers and thunderstorms (isolated stuff). Tuesday-Thursday could be the stormiest as the upper jet provides W/NW or just NW flow into NJ from a destabilized region. Then Friday looks like the day that the cold front will advance through and remind us what time of season it is. Again, not total pumpkin spice soup weather…but definitely “ok, summer is coming to an end” conditions for Friday into next weekend.   

Forecast

Friday (Aug 28) high temperatures reached the upper-70s/lower-80s for most NJ locations. A few spots near 85 along the corridor. Humidity much stickier in SNJ than NNJ. Today was SENJ’s day to see some of the storm activity they missed out on yesterday. Everything has cleared the coast already and now just isolated remnant showers and thunderstorms are possible into this evening. Lower temperatures and lower humidity will be most prominent in NNJ tonight. How far the relief gets through CNJ is yet TBD but SNJ has the best chance to stay cloudy and humid into Saturday morning. Overnight lows could actually range from 50-70 NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Aug 29) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a less humid feel. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 NNJ to SNJ with humidity creeping back into at least SNJ.

Sunday (Aug 30) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with humidity back for all of NJ. Can’t rule out some isolated afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms. A tropical feel to the day after the drier/cooler-feeling Saturday. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 65-73 NNJ to SNJ with humidity and shower possibilities persisting into early Monday.

An early look at next week (Aug 31-Sept 4) indicates a major shift in general NJ climate. We’re probably going to come to some sort of head/peak in storm activity mid-week ushering in the coolest and driest air mass for next weekend that we’ve seen yet in summer’s descent. So, I would expect tropical feel Monday (iso showers/storms), stormy conditions statewide Tuesday-Thursday, then a transitional Friday (cold front passage) that sets up a cooler/drier next weekend. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC