More Unsettled Conditions

Discussion: Let’s call it what it was. After Friday’s rain and storms, beautiful conditions (pollen aside) settled across the region for Saturday through today. Tonight, we’ll lose that as a rain system moves in from the S from a decaying upper-low…under a developing ridge. If it was a ridge alone, we’d deal with warmer temps and humidity with little rain outside of very isolated pop-ups. But with the decaying upper-low, there’s enough disturbance to generate more of a synoptic rainfall to kick off this week’s unsettled nature overall. Unfortunately, I am seeing lots of upper-lows moving across the Mid-Atlantic US from tonight through this week/weekend and into next week. That means clouds and showers are more probable than dry and clear…just from a meteorological assumption. It will be hard to pinpoint the periods of rain. We’re not looking at all-day washouts every day through the weekend…but certainly the chance for passing showers and thunderstorms almost every day. Annoying for outdoor activities but beneficial for the water tables. The weekend looks less unsettled than the more immediate Tuesday-Friday period…meaning showers and thunderstorms would be very isolated vs the larger rain impact tonight through about Thursday/Friday. No major storm systems or thunderstorm outbreaks on the foreseeable horizon. The best chance for thunderstorms seems like Wednesday.

Forecast

Monday (May 12) high temperatures should reach near-80 away from the ocean but hang in the 65-75 range along the coast depending on sea breeze influence. Day time hours should be mostly sunny with clouds increasing through PM hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-60 range NNJ to SNJ with rain moving in after midnight.

Tuesday (May 13) high temperatures should reach the 65-70 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall back to the 55-60 range with a period of rain likely continuing into Wednesday.

Wednesday (May 14) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should remain cloudy with more periods of rain and possibly thunderstorms. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall back to near-60 as rain and possibly thunderstorms continue into Thursday.

Thursday (May 15) high temperatures should reach the 70-75 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. More rain and thunderstorms are possible as the region remains unsettled. Expect a humid feel with light-to-breezy winds out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall to the upper-50s/lower-60s statewide as skies improve but remain cloudy.

Friday (May 16) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should remain mixed with more clouds than sun with an unsettled look and feel. Can’t rule out more showers and thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 N to S with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible into Saturday.  

An early look at the weekend (May 17-18) indicates more unsettled conditions but not as unsettled as earlier in the week. Humid 70s is a good bet for temps and feel. However isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible at any point…but not all-day washouts by any means. Let’s take a closer look in a few days when I should be able to discuss weekend rain/storm timing more confidently. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC