More Unsettled Muggy Conditions

Jonathan Carr
By August 26, 2021 13:59

More Unsettled Muggy Conditions

Weekend Discussion: Our weekend NJ weather pattern will be governed mostly by upper-level ridging in the E US under an upper-jet stream far to the N of NJ. At the surface this means more 90s Friday but not as warm Saturday and Sunday given light onshore flow. Regardless of temps, the humidity is going nowhere and will likely stay until at least Tuesday PM. Until then we’re unsettled meaning rain and thunderstorms could pop-off any day at any time in this tropical air mass. Afternoon-evening hours are most favored however. A cold front is expected next ~Tuesday PM/Wednesday AM but we then might have to content with whatever Tropical Depression 9 becomes, which leads us to a tropical discussion.

Tropics Discussion: There are a few Invests in the Atlantic Ocean that shouldn’t be a threat to the US. There is one however, forming now SW of Jamaica, that could bring trouble to the US. One of the other Invests could always skip ahead in line but it is most likely TD9 will become Tropical Storm Ida very soon and start tracking across W Cuba towards the N Gulf Coast area. We could have a hurricane making landfall this Sunday night into Monday morning. It is too soon to estimate landfall intensity but given the time of year, how warm and moist the Gulf of Mexico is, and the shear profiles, a major landfall is not off the table. I would say that all coastal residents between E Texas and W FL, including all of LA, MS, and AL gulf coasts, should be ready to evacuate by Saturday night. That window of coastal impact will obviously narrow as we get through tomorrow and Saturday morning. But for now, that’s the spread of track possibility. From there model guidance takes the storm right up the Mississippi River before turning remnants towards us (the Mid-Atlantic US). NJ could be looking at tropical storm or depression remnants in the Thursday-ish period. That would at least include heavy rainfall and light-to-moderate winds with that strange funky energy potential that normally accompanies tropical remnants. The good news is that would finally clear out the warm and humid temps for a beautiful Labor Day Weekend. Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves though. For now, let’s see how the landfall evolves over the next few days.

Friday (Aug 27) high temperatures should break 90 for most areas away from the ocean. Coastal regions should hang in the mid-80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a very humid feel. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible. Heat indices likely nearing or just breaking 100 for interior CNJ/SNJ. Winds should be very light. A few mph in any direction. Overnight lows should range from near-70 to mid-70s from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (Aug 28) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 70s away from the ocean. Coastal areas will actually be warmer with a much better chance of breaking into low-80s. Skies should be mixed with heavy clouds and some sun with a humid feel. Scattered rain and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from elevations to coasts.

Sunday (Aug 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with continued elevated humidity. Rain and thunderstorm chances should be more isolated than Friday and Saturday. Still possible but not widespread and likely during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most areas.

An early look at next week indicates a warmer start but not too hot, highs in the 80s lows in the upper-60s. I’m tracking a cold front coming in from the N/NW in the ~Tues PM/Wed AM period which should provide some relief from temps and humidity for at least Wednesday. Then we could deal with remnants of Tropical Depression 9 (likely soon to be named Ida) Thursday before everything clears out big time for Friday into the weekend (high pressure, dry, and clear). Let’s revisit this in a few days. Hang in there if the tropical air mass seems relentless, relief is coming. Stay as cool and hydrated as your situation allows. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By August 26, 2021 13:59