More Volatile Conditions Expected

Discussion: Some rain moved through last night and scraped extreme NNJ with some wintry precip. No big deal. We’ll see another round of showers this afternoon preceding a weak cold front (really just a sinking boundary). We’ll then warm up before the weekend with Thursday the warmest day, especially in CNJ/SNJ. I foresee a lot of hooky and colds being called in on Thursday lol. Should be a solid spring tease with temps possibly into the 70s. Another cold front should move through Friday and set up another colder Friday-Saturday period before more moderation Sunday. Seems familiar. Sunday into next week is a bit more interesting as two systems will likely traverse the zonal boundary from W to E. They don’t look like snowstorms however NNJ can get clipped with ice/snow if the conditions are just right. I’ll be looking more at this in the next few days. The SE ridge is likely going to prevent any Arctic outbreaks stemming from the SSWE for the first week of March. The TPV will be pressing downwards though. So we’ll have strong cold pressing down against warm and moist air. A frontal boundary will separate these air masses with lows traversing them from W to E. It’s quite simple. If the boundary is to our S then we could see snow. If it’s to our N then rain. It still looks like an unfavorable snowstorm pattern though so I wouldn’t get your hopes up just yet. This winter continues to be painful for the snow lover. We’re ending the 6^th inning and entering the 7^th. Not much time left. Let’s see what happens in the Feb 28-March 4 period. If nothing, it might be time to then throw the towel and prep the outdoor grill stuff.

Tuesday (Feb 21) high temperatures should push into the low-to-mid 50s for most areas. Elevations might hang in the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with some showers around in the afternoon. Winds should be light out of the S/SE, possibly breezier along the SNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should range from about 25-38 from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (Feb 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s for most NJ areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more showers around. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to coasts.

Thursday (Feb 23) high temperatures should range rather drastically from NNJ elevations (mid-40s) to SENJ coasts (mid-60s maybe 70s?). A few morning showers around with conditions improving by mid-to-late morning and forward. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s.

Friday (Feb 24) high temperatures should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to coasts. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the NW as a cold front pushes through. A noticeable drop in temperatures, especially sunset into overnight hours. Looks like mid-teens to mid-20s from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates colder conditions lasting through Saturday. All of NJ should max in the 30s Saturday before another cold Saturday night. Sunday looks a bit milder. The weekend looks mostly dry until Sunday PM when a system could approach from the W. Next week indicates an active weather pattern but snow vs rain ideas are still too soon to address. But we could be looking at wintry precip for at least NNJ this Sunday night into next week (before February’s end)…possibly two separate events. Let’s see how it all looks in a few days. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™