More Volatile Conditions

Discussion: While forecasters continue to drool over the anomalous blocking signal expected to begin next week, let’s stay focused on what’s in front of us this weekend. A ridge will build over the Northeast US today (Friday) before handing off to a more zonal pattern for Sunday into next week. Obviously, the ridge will produce a warmer surface temperature profile today into tomorrow (Saturday). Another frontal rain system is then expected to pass through between Saturday morning and early afternoon. The dynamics do not look as strong as this past Wednesday but a very similar setup: Mild S/SW winds ahead of the front, a period of windy moderate-to-heavy rainfall, then colder and dryer W/NW winds behind the front. The frontal passage should crash temperatures around sunset timing Saturday and allow a for a colder Saturday night (most below freezing). Sunday and Monday should then stay on the colder side before another transient warmup for ~Tuesday rain. By Wednesday, the Greenland block should be developing. At that point I will be interested to see how the incoming Pacific pattern looks. As I said in Wednesday’s article, we’ll need a ridge to develop over the NW US (+PNA) by the end of next weekend to force a cold and energetic trough into the E US the week after (Dec 11-17). That would significantly increase the chances for a snowstorm in said period. However, if the E Pacific ridging stays further W over Alaska (a +EPO), rather than over the NW US, then the lower-48 would be subject to upper-level lows pumping into the W US from the Gulf of Alaska region with a responding/building ridge in the SE US. Therefore we need those Greenland and NE Pacific blocks to get closer together for the snowstorm. So that’s what I will be paying the most attention to. Still a lot of time until then and the rest of December is starting to look colder as well. Into the snow season we go.

Friday (Dec 2) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s range for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (Dec 3) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most. Some SNJ spots might break 60. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain during AM and early afternoon hours. Conditions should improve by late-afternoon and forward. Winds should start out breezy, possibly gusty, out of the S/SW and then become W/NW once the rain clears. Sound familiar? Overnight lows should then drop into the 20s for most with immediate coastal areas likely staying just above freezing.

Sunday (Dec 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 20-30 from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates highs in the general 40-50 range, maybe just upper-30s for elevations. Overnight lows should have a common theme of 20s away from the ocean and low-to-mid 30s right along it. Tuesday stands out as the warmer day/night of the week with another rain system. I’m still following a few long-range storm signals, possibly wintry, for the following week. Let’s see how it all looks after the weekend. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps (ahead of the public). At a buck per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show support.

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™