Mostly Great Conditions Persist

Discussion: The trough pattern, that the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US has been in, will take a break by the end of this weekend. This will still allow a nice Friday, Saturday and Sunday start. By Sunday afternoon, the trough will be pushed out by N flow on the front side of an establishing strong Canadian ridge. A piece of energy will break off and hang back in the SE US from the departing trough. This, in theory, should mean a colder N flow push Sunday PM into Monday AM (isolated showers along this push) but then back to a warmer drier look for next week. For outdoor interests, Saturday is the better day of this weekend. Sunday should start nice but afternoon-evening hours could see isolated showers here and there. No where near a washout but certainly nuisance level if realized. Next week, the Canadian ridge will drift eastward and S flow will establish over NJ from the flow filling the Canadian ridge, assisted by the front side of the SEUS upper low. This should produce slightly above average temperatures through at least Friday with a cold front expected sometime next weekend. The only wildcard I see is a possible coastal low disruption in the Wed-Thurs period, similar to this past Wednesday. I should have a better handle on that for the weekly outlook in a few days. The tropics remain non-threatening for NJ and even quiet for the entire Atlantic hurricane basin.

Forecast

Friday (Sept 12) high temperatures are maxing out in the mid-to-upper 70s for most locations. A few WCNJ/SWNJ spots are touching 80. Skies should remain mixed with sun and clouds. Winds are light out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-60 range NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Sept 13) high temperatures should reach a few degrees on either side of 80 for most NJ locations…just above 80 for WCNJ/SWNJ and below 80 for the rest of NJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-60 range with clear skies.

Sunday (Sept 14) high temperatures should reach the 80-85 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds to start with increasing clouds and isolated showers possible for afternoon-evening. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with most of NJ dipping below 60 less coastal areas.

An early look at next week (Sept 15-19) indicates most of NJ reaching the 80-85 range during the day and 55-60 range at night. Coastal areas reaching 75-80 during day and lower-60s at night. Not seeing any significant rainfall unless another coastal can form for the Wed-Thurs period. I am watching this and will report accordingly. So slightly warmer but still comfortable overall with lower humidity in-place and a developing chance of a coastal low mid-week. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC