Nice Fall Stretch Continues

Discussion: The upper jet, observed at 250mb, should flow either over or to the S of NJ this week. This is due to a trough dominated pattern, observed at 500mb, which should close out October. This week should feel very much like the fall season we’re in. These first few days of the week should be the milder days of the week until another front pushes through Tues-Wed and drops NJ colder for Wed PM into the weekend. The rain along/just ahead of the front looks like the only rain of this week (late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning). Much like last night’s front, rainfall will likely be limited to a quarter inch or less. The only reason we won’t plunge into freeze/deep frost territory is because winds should remain zonal out of the W despite us falling inside of the lower area of the trough. Again, it all adds up to beautiful weather if you like fall aside from the Tues PM-Wed AM frontal showers. I’m keeping an eye on the general Halloween period as a long-range signal. Nothing specific yet but certainly some interesting dynamics with a meridional W US ridge/E US trough pattern and a possible late-season Caribbean-origin tropical cyclone off the E US coast. There’s absolutely no reason to panic, just justification to watch it unfold for now.

Forecast

Monday (Oct 20) high temperatures are maxing in the mid-to-upper 50s up in NNJ elevations and low-to-mid 60s across the rest of NJ. Skies are mixed with sun and clouds with generally breezy winds out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 40-50 range NNJ to SNJ as skies continue to clear.

Tuesday (Oct 21) high temperatures should reach the 65-72 range for most NJ locations. Cooler side of that range for elevations and coasties. Warmer side of that range closer to Philly. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW, breeziest, even gusty at times, along the SENJ coast. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-60 range NNJ to SNJ with a few showers possible.

Wednesday (Oct 22) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Can’t rule out a shower or two in the morning but otherwise skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW, breeziest, even gusty at times, along the SENJ coast again. Overnight lows should range from 40-55 NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Oct 23) high temperatures should range from 55-62. Cooler side of that range for elevations and coasties. Warmer side of that range closer to Philly. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should fall to the upper-30s/lower-40s for most NJ locations. Coasties could hang closer to 50.

Friday (Oct 24) high temperatures should reach the 55-60 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 35-45 range NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend (Oct 25-26) indicates more of the same…highs in the 55-62 range, lows in the 35-45 range (50 near coast) with dry conditions. Let’s have another look closer to the weekend. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC