Nice Start then Back to Cooler Pattern

Discussion: The upper jet should fluctuate either over or S of New Jersey for the next few weeks. This will correlate with a prolonged period of below-average geopotential height anomalies for most of the E US. At the surface it means below-average temperatures. These next few days are going to be warmer (into the 70s maybe 80) but then a cold front is going to knock us down to a chillier pattern to close out April and even start May. The front should push at least a thin strip of rain through with maybe some thunderstorm action late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The cooler pattern would set in starting Sunday. It’s not what you want to hear if you’re looking forward to warmer spring weather. However, it won’t be THAT bad. Areas away from the ocean will still get up into the mid, maybe upper, 60s. Coastal regions will be held to near-60 for highs. Still great feeling days, especially in the afternoon sun…but chillier than most would like to see in the shade or overnight. Seeing a few coastal storm signals. First would be April 28-30 next would be May 1-3. So after this Saturday night/Sunday morning’s rain/storm front, we should be dry Sunday through Wednesday. Then all eyes would focus on a rain and wind event Thursday (April 28) into next weekend. I wish I had better news than below-average temps and cold rain/wind event(s). But that’s how it looks for now. Any warm snaps will have to wait until about May 5 or beyond. Enjoy the next few warmer days knowing such.

Friday (April 21) high temperatures should reach near-80 away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas should hang in the mi-60s. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the E/SE for most, breezier right along the ocean. Overnight lows should range from 50 to 60 from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (April 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s away from the ocean, maybe near-70 or less (60s) right along the ocean. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds during the day with rain and storms possible later at night. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/SE, breeziest right along the ocean. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s as a rain/storm front pushes through between late-evening and just after midnight. Should be a thin strip of downpours maybe boomers…will have to assess approaching radar in the 11^th hour.

Sunday (April 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Allow for rain to depart the coast until about 4am then the rest of the day looks dry. Skies should then be mixed with sun and clouds…cloudier for NNJ and sunnier for SNJ. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 40 to 50 from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates a cooler pattern setting up to close out April and start May. We’re talking highs in the low-to-mid 60s when they should be near or just above 70. Next week looks to start dry with some rain moving in mid-to-late week. Let’s see how it looks in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™