Nor’easter Departs. Jersey Dries Out

Discussion: The nor’easter is pulling away from the E US coast. Still some less intense coastal flooding potential from the general fade away radiative swell of the ocean system, along with the draining estuaries and back bays. But winds have subsided and become northerly, no longer an onshore push. Otherwise, the rain is gone (as of Tuesday afternoon). The nor’easter brought inches of rainfall to the ECNJ/SENJ coast, winds gusts in excess of 67mph and some of the worst coastal flooding in some spots since Sandy. The duration of the event was almost 50 hours though and that was likely the most notable feature since we haven’t seen anything like that in over 5 years. The departing trough/UL and approaching ridge will now create N flow at most levels over NJ for the next few days. This will allow colder air to spill down from Canada Wed-Fri with early Friday AM the coldest point. Whenever a synoptic low nears the NJ coast and pulls away, it brings these northerly winds behind its departure. When a tropical low does it in the summer we see highs in the 80s with 50 dews. When a nor’easter or coastal low does it in the fall, we see highs near 60 with 30 dews. When a winter storm does it, we see some of the coldest air of the year (highs near or just below freezing with near-0 dews). Same mechanism at different times of the year. The ridge should then drift E over NJ with the westerly jet flow by late this weekend, allowing a milder Saturday night through Sunday, likely into Monday morning. A rainy frontal system should then precede another colder air mass for next week. I’m watching the rainy front for Monday as there could be some interesting dynamics involved. I know storm chasers out west are watching these dynamics as well. The atmosphere is much colder now, especially aloft. So, it doesn’t take much lift to produce severe thunderstorm weather especially out west. For now, I would expect rain and S winds on Monday. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few boomer dynamics associated with it when passing through Jersey.

Forecast

Tuesday (Oct 14) high temperatures should reach the upper-50s/lower-60s for most NJ locations, perhaps the 63-68 range closer to Philly in SWNJ. Skies should gradually improve with sun making it through by late-afternoon in spots. Winds are light-to-breezy out of the N, breezier along the coast. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-55 range NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Oct 15) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s with a much drier fall feel. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 37-45 range NNJ to SNJ, bringing a frost to many NJ locations NW of I-95/NJTP and possibly some SNJ Pine Barrens locations.

Thursday (Oct 16) high temperatures should only reach the upper-50s/lower-60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with a solid fall feel. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall well into the 30s for many NJ locations and likely only stay above 40 for coastal regions. Freezes are possible for NWNJ and some of the SNJ Pine Barrens could come close. Otherwise, a solid frost for many.

Friday (Oct 17) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 38-45 range NNJ to SNJ. More frost potential but not as cold as Thursday night.

An early look at the weekend (Oct 18-19) indicates another solid fall feel for Saturday but increasing cloudiness and humidity, especially overnight into Sunday. Can’t rule out fog for Sunday morning as 70s return for Sunday highs. Both Saturday and Sunday look dry but rain could move in for Monday. Let’s have a closer look in a few days. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers ad-free content, inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps and video releases (ahead of the public). At two bucks per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show additional support for Weather NJ. Think of it as a tip jar with perks. Available onFacebook or Patreon. 

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC