Not as Hot but Still Unsettled (Aug 2-4)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 1, 2019 15:48

Not as Hot but Still Unsettled (Aug 2-4)

Discussion: The E Pacific/W US setup should continue to produce a +PNA (ridging) signal. This translates downstream to either a flat jet across the Mid-Atlantic US or quick-moving positive-axis trough. This should prevent us from getting crazy hot but keep the region mildly unsettled. No widespread washouts from synoptic rain systems but certainly the chance for isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms via mesoscale diurnal destabilization. The near-new moon and onshore flow should combine and produce minor-to-moderate (likely minor) coastal flooding along the Delaware Bay and ENJ coastlines this evening (Thursday) and tomorrow (Friday). This includes most of the Raritan Bay, NYC area and part of Long Island. Saturday and Sunday should feature sun, humidity and isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms. Is it a completely clear and storm-free weekend? No. But I’ll take highs in the 80s with dews in the mid-to-upper 60s over highs near 100 with dews in the 70s on any day of the week. Here’s to hoping your area misses the isolated-to-scattered action this weekend. I’m watching the SE US coast for any tropical development next week. The Cape Verde region off Africa and through the E Atlantic trade winds towards the Caribbean should remain stunted for now via Sahara Desert dry air. That’s not to say something couldn’t develop closer to our SE US coast however. I’ll be watching and will report accordingly.

Friday (Aug 2) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should be partly cloudy with a very small chance of localized showers and thunderstorms. NNJ should feel less humid than CNJ/SNJ. Winds should be light out of the E. Minor coastal flooding (potentially moderate) is possible for immediate coastal areas given the near-new moon and persistent onshore flow timed with both Friday high tides. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas.

Saturday (Aug 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with humidity returning to NNJ (lingering for CNJ/SNJ). A few isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms should be around but not a widespread washout. Winds should be light out of the S perhaps a bit breezier for the SENJ coast. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas.

Sunday (Aug 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. If anyone is going to flirt with 90 is will be interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Just a small chance of isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms and mostly during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the W/NW for NNJ/CNJ but could be more out of the W/SW for SNJ. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates a solid shot of Canadian cool/dry air by late-Monday morning. Therefore Monday should feel pretty amazing outside with highs struggling to break 80. Everything should quickly rebound to summery conditions for the rest of the week (Tuesday-forward). Watch out for fog Monday night/Tuesday morning as warmer ocean air returns inland into the cool/dry air mass. For Tuesday-forward expect highs in the mid-to-upper 80s (breaking 90 closer to Wilmington/Philly/Trenton areas) and typical summer humidity—nothing crazy but noticeable. Most storm activity should be here and there. Nothing widespread showing at the moment. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 1, 2019 15:48