Nov 22: Winter Storm Detected!

Model guidance continues to suggest a coastal low pressure disturbance riding up the coast in the Wednesday-Thursday period. As far as expected accumulation amounts and where the snow/rain line will set up, we’re going to have to monitor very closely. Given the time of year with warmer ocean temperatures, coastal/SENJ will need a lot to happen for accumulations. Areas of New Jersey further inland (5-10 miles west of the Garden State Parkway in SNJ and NW of the NJTP in CNJ/NNJ), it will be cold enough for snow to fall and stick.

Lets talk about the latest guidance. The latest 12Z Euro drops 6-12 inches of snow along the entire I-95 corridor (with mixing issues at the coast). That seems a little aggressive for now but this solution has been showing a few runs now. Can’t argue with the king of models if that solution is still showing after a few more runs. The GFS, on the other hand, is a little bit east of the Euro but still a light snow event for most of New Jersey. That’s pretty much where we are at this point…Euro (significant snow hit with mixing issues at the coast) vs. GFS (light snow event for mostly coastal and SE New Jersey). This is the latest GFS showing 850mb pressure, temperature, and precipitation between Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. Precipitation then tapers off early Thanksgiving morning:

In English: You should probably start getting ready for anything from a wintry mix/dusting to a significant I-95/NJTP snow storm this Wednesday-Thursday. I’ll be watching like a hawk in the next few days and will make an initial snow map on Monday if the status quo is kept on model guidance. Be safe! JC

And suddenly you find yourself by Greg Molyneux Photography

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™