November 2019 Outlook

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 1, 2019 14:44

November 2019 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how November 2019 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends are what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of reasonable expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast.

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The following diagram is calculated using WeatherTrends360 proprietary algorithms for New Jersey in general. Please keep in mind that micro-climate influences can vary. NWNJ elevations, SENJ Pine Barrens and immediate coastal areas, for example, will verify slightly cooler than illustrated due to elevation, soil and marine flow influence. Interior CNJ/SNJ (closer to N Delaware/Philly/Trenton – I-95 corridor) slightly warmer than illustrated due to urban heat island effect and several other influencing factors. All areas of NJ however would have similar graph trends and sky conditions. It’s best to let the graph paint an overall picture (trends) instead of focusing on the low-level details.

Discussion: November 2019 has started with seasonably average conditions. It was quite warm and muggy in yesterday’s warm sector of the mid-latitude cyclone that passed through the Great Lakes/SE Canada. But now we go back to reality.

This weekend (Nov 1-3) looks colder and dry. We’ll then see some moderation in temperatures early next week via return flow from high pressure off Cape Cod. Next weekend (Nov 8-10) should then see the coldest air of the season so far thanks to a strong high diving out of Canada into the central US. This will force cold Canadian air down into the Mid-Atlantic US. We’re talking widespread highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. NNJ elevations might not escape the upper-30s for highs and might dip into the upper-teens overnight.

After the ~Nov 8-10) cold snap temperatures should moderate back to near average for most of the month with a few spikes of above-average. Meteorological winter (Dec 1-Feb 28) should then start with seasonably average temperatures.

If you can remember August and September were very dry precipitation-wise. October was the complete opposite with some crying uncle to stop the rain. November looks to fall right in the middle. Less rain than October but more than August/September. Some models are suggesting our first seasonal snow event mid-November (14-15th) but we’re in fantasy range right now. I’ll monitor that winter storm signal but wouldn’t be surprised if it dropped off of guidance in the next 3-5 days. If we did see a snow it would be very low-ration wet snow that would struggle to stick especially with how warm the ocean still is. It’s happened before but it’s very rare.

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In English: November 2019 should see a few colder snaps to start (this weekend and next weekend). After that temperatures should moderate to near-average/above-average. Precipitation looks close to average maybe slightly below-average. Everyone have a great month and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 1, 2019 14:44