October 2019 Outlook

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 1, 2019 12:03

October 2019 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how October 2019 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends are what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of reasonable expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast.

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The following diagram is calculated using WeatherTrends360 proprietary algorithms for New Jersey in general. Please keep in mind that micro-climate influences can vary. NWNJ elevations, SENJ Pine Barrens and immediate coastal areas, for example, will verify slightly cooler than illustrated due to elevation, soil and marine flow influence. Interior CNJ/SNJ (closer to N Delaware/Philly/Trenton – I-95 corridor) slightly warmer than illustrated due to urban heat island effect and several other influencing factors. All areas of NJ however would have similar graph trends and sky conditions. It’s best to let the graph paint an overall picture (trends) instead of focusing on the low-level details.

Discussion: October obviously starts with an anomalously warm few days. Wednesday (Oct 2) should be the peak of the warmth followed by an unsettled period from Wednesday night-Friday morning (Oct 2-4). Rain is expected in this period which looks to favor NNJ more than SNJ. Temperatures are then expected to crash Friday night rendering NJ chilly for the weekend. This is the surface result of the upper-level E US ridge breaking down and allowing areas of lower geopotential heights and disturbances to float through in less of a meridional pattern.

A small moderation rebound is expected around the Sunday-Monday (Oct 6-7) period. On these days we might see highs in the low-to-mid 70s with lows still falling into the 50s statewide. This surface result is from another E US ridge but it seems more transient and progressive in nature. All other periods of October, aside from the two above discussed periods, should feature a slow decline of routine October temperatures. For NNJ this means highs in the mid-60s with lows in the 30s/40s. For CNJ this means highs in the upper-60s/near-70 with lows in the 40s. For SNJ this means highs in the upper-60s/near-70 with lows in the 40s/50s.

As far as precipitation goes October 2019 looks wetter than September was. NJ is not at drought status yet but is considered abnormally dry in several parts of the state. The fact that we had a wet year through mid-August followed by a dry late-August through September is actually the ideal setup for foliage color enhancement. Fall colors are well underway for northern regions but are still yet to peak for southern areas.

Of course all of the above does not consider larger synoptic events such as a late-season hurricane or coastal storm. While none are modeled in the near future (first third of October) they cannot be ruled out later in the month. We’ll have to treat them as they come (within every 7-day forecasting period). If it happens you know I’ll be on it.

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In English: October 2019 starts with well above-average temperatures for the first few days followed by below-average temperatures for the first weekend. Then Temperatures rebound warmer slightly (nice not hot) for the Oct 6-7 period but quickly moderate back to where they should be the rest of the month—slowly declining as we move deeper into fall. A decent amount of rainfall is expected throughout the month which should help offset the very dry September we just had. Everyone have a great month and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 1, 2019 12:03