Rainy, Stormy, and Gloomy

Jonathan Carr
By May 5, 2022 12:22

Rainy, Stormy, and Gloomy

Discussion: A slow moving upper-level low will drift across the Mid-Atlantic US from W to E this weekend (arrives Friday departs Sunday). An associated weak surface low will flow beneath, bringing rain and wind to New Jersey for at least Friday PM hours into Saturday afternoon. There are a few dynamics that could act as saving graces for Mother’s Day (at least rain-wise). One is the trough off to the NE of the region. This trough should interact some and try to pull the upper low to the E/NE (out into the ocean). The other is a strong building ridge in SE Canada that should try and push the upper low S. With that said, these upper forces should push the surface low S and E for Sunday allowing a cooler but drier Mother’s Day Sunday. Friday PM into at least Saturday afternoon, however, look wet and windy. Rainfall could total a few inches over the entire weekend but Friday night into Saturday morning should be the meat and potatoes of that rainfall. Once the system is squashed to the S and E (by early Sunday morning), the higher winds should remain but the rain should stop. The higher winds will be amplified by the high pressure return flow stacked on the surface low’s N side. These dynamics should linger and meander offshore through at least Tuesday keeping the flow onshore with additional rain possible. Coastal flooding is likely with the prolonged onshore flow and rainfall however lower astronomical tides, associated with first-quarter moon phase, should inhibit major coastal flooding from happening. Likely minor, maybe moderate localized. By Wed-Thurs, a ridge should build along the E US and bring 70+ temperatures to NJ from Wednesday (maybe Thursday)-forward through next weekend.

In English: Expect a wet and windy (especially along the coast) Friday into Saturday. Expect rain to taper between Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. Conditions should improve for Mother’s Day rain-wise but the winds and cooler temps should begin Friday and end early next week.

Weekend Forecast:

Friday (May 6) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely…heavy at times especially overnight. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should hover around 50 statewide.

Saturday (May 7) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy. The day should start with rain, heavy at times, that gradually tapers off throughout the day into afternoon/evening. Winds should be breezy out of the NE for most (gusty – 40mph possible – off the ocean for coastal areas). Coastal flooding is anticipated along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-40s for most areas as winds continue to crank off the ocean.

Sunday (May 8) Mother’s Day high temperatures should max in the lower-50s for most areas. Skies should start cloudy with some remnant AM showers possibly around but improve by afternoon. Winds will remain breezy, likely gusty, out of the NE. Coastal flooding concerns will remain in place through Sunday and into Monday morning. Overnight lows should fall back to the mid-40s.

An early look at next week indicates Monday-Tuesday remaining cool. Wednesday should be a half-step up in temps (mid-60s to near-70) but windy. Thursday-through the weekend then looks like 70s every day. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By May 5, 2022 12:22