Refreshing Start. Unsettled Thurs-Fri

Discussion: It’s hard to argue against a great feel outside today (Monday) and that should last through tomorrow (Tuesday). A low has tracked through SE Canada and dragged a cold front through NJ, ushering in a cooler/drier air mass. It’s not fall cold yet. But it’s certainly beautiful late-summer conditions. The upper-jet will relax into more of a zonal flow by Wednesday but we still have lower geopotential heights around today and tomorrow (Mon and Tues). Because of that, it doesn’t take much diurnal heating to spark a shower or two. For this reason I am keeping isolated showers possible today and tomorrow (Mon and Tues) in the forecast below. Otherwise, amazing late-summer conditions through Tuesday night. As the upper-jet relaxes into a slight W/SW wind source Wednesday, it will start to draw humidity and storm chances back over NJ from the S/SW. Wednesday looks sunny but by Wednesday night/Thursday morning, we should have an idea of the storm setup rest. Thursday looks to feature the strongest thunderstorms of the week but the possibility extends into Friday as well. We’re then looking at a great weekend to wrap up the summer break (for students/teachers/etc.)…or just a great weekend if you work year-round. Either way, it will be much welcomed for outdoor interests. It’s not pumpkin spice latte craze time yet folks. That’s later September into October when high temps max at 70 with dews in the 40s. For the next month, we’ll be in that zone lost between too hot and soup time where highs reach the 70s/near-80 and dews are in the 50s. Most gorgeous time of the year for NJ IMO. The tropics remain quiet for US east coast interests but vigilantly monitored for anything that pops up.

Forecast

Monday (Aug 24) high temperatures have maxed in the 75-85 range NNJ to SNJ and will now descend into a very refreshing overnight period. Even though humidity is lower and it feels like an amazing day, you can’t rule out an isolated shower or two later this evening/overnight. But most should stay dry. Winds should remain very light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Coastal areas down to the 60-65 range.

Tuesday (Aug 25) high temperatures should reach a few degrees on either side of 80 again. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Again, can’t rule out an isolated shower or two but most should be okay. Another day of lower humidity felt somewhat along the coast but more so away from the ocean. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall to the 52-65 range NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Aug 26) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Humidity should trickle back into the general region. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-70 range NNJ to SNJ as humidity continues building in.

Thursday (Aug 27) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun/mostly cloudy. Humidity well established. Rain and thunderstorms are possible, capable of producing damaging wind gusts locally and/or hail. The situation will be monitored and reported accordingly closer to. Otherwise, winds should be light out of the S/SW and overnight lows should fall to the 65-72 range NNJ to SNJ. More rain and thunderstorms are possible overnight.

Friday (Aug 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 58-70 NNJ to SNJ under calmer clearing skies.

An early look at the weekend (Aug 29-30) indicates positive conditions for outdoors as of now. For many (students/teachers/etc), this will be the last weekend before school starts back up. I’m seeing temps reaching 80-85 Saturday and Sunday with humidity ranging from manageable away from the ocean to humid along the coast. Overnight lows ranging from upper-50s to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.  Let’s check back in a few days but so far, a great looking weekend to wrap summer break up. For many and people like me, who don’t have summers off, It’s just another weekend step into the best-feeling weather of the year IMO for NJ (late-Aug through early Oct). Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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