Slightly Unsettled (April 12-16)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 11, 2021 15:36

Slightly Unsettled (April 12-16)

Discussion: The upper levels this week have a very unsettled look. 500mb geopotential height anomalies should alternate between near-average to below-average. This means a lower general atmosphere (cooler aloft) which allows milder rising air and moisture (from higher-angle diurnal surface heating) to saturate quicker and at a lower altitude. Therefore, I expect nuisance rain showers over the next week or so but not widespread, more of an isolated-to-scattered type thing. Between these showers should be nice spring weather (the majority of the time). Average temps in April for NJ are near-60 so we’ll pretty much be there. The heights profile should matter more so for producing unsettled conditions rather than affecting temperatures. The higher sun angle is going to scream through the cooler air aloft and still warm the surface. Overnight hours however could still become chilly at times as NJ dips into the 40s, maybe even upper 30s for elevations. If we can make it through the more unsettled Monday-Friday, the weekend looks better. Saturday and Sunday look drier in the wake of the Thursday-Friday low. So to sum it up, this week looks mostly nice but times of clouds and nuisance rain around. Nothing major storm wise to report.

Monday (April 12) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s. Skies should be mixed with mostly clouds and a few sunny breaks. Occasional periods of light rain are possible with generally unsettled conditions still around. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to coasts.

Tuesday (April 13) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most. Coastal areas could hang in mid-to-upper 50s. Skies should start cloudy in the early morning but improve significantly throughout the day. Winds should remain light out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 40s.

Wednesday (April 14) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be mixed with mostly clouds and maybe some sunny breaks. Afternoon showers are possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-50 for most areas with more rain likely. Winds could become onshore overnight depending on the low track.

Thursday (April 15) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy for most but breezier along the shore. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to coasts as conditions remain unsettled.

Friday (April 16) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas…maybe just under 60. Skies should remain mixed with sun, clouds, and unsettled spring showers possible at times. Conditions should generally improve from AM to PM hours. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates improved conditions with an area of high pressure floating through. Highs in the low-to-mid 60s and drier/settled conditions overall. You can never rule out an isolated spring shower this time of year but the weekend looks pretty good from this range.   

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 11, 2021 15:36