Small Window of Relief (Aug 7-9)

Discussion: There’s nothing really worth discussing in the upper-levels. 250mb jet analysis and 500mb geopotential height analysis indicate no major features to worry about. The main player this weekend will be an area of high pressure tracking from the Great Lakes to the OBX region of the Atlantic Ocean. We’ll benefit from the front-side of the high with cooler temperatures and less humidity from N flow. But once the high gets out to sea, S return flow will warm and humidify our region again. There’s an area of convergence in front of the high with front-side N flow meeting up with Bermuda high return flow and that’s why Friday looks like the most unsettled day. Saturday a little less unsettled with the convergence departing. Sunday looks like the most settled day with high pressure overhead but that will, again, usher in warmer temps and higher humidity. It might be mid-August before we can get any kind of sustainable relief from the heat and humidity behind a stronger cold front. For now, enjoy Friday and Saturday’s small window of relief despite the chance for rain and thunderstorms.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (Aug 7) high temperatures should range from mid-70s to near-80 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with scattered rain and thunderstorms around. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to near-70 from elevations to sea.

Saturday (Aug 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be partly cloudy with isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms around. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to sea.

Sunday (Aug 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ would have the best chance of reaching 90. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Humidity should be noticeably increased from Friday-Saturday. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from elevations to sea.

An early look at next week indicates warmer conditions sustaining from Sunday through the week. While no larger organized rain storms are currently showing, isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on any given day with the hot and humid setup. A stronger cold front, which would bring more significant relief than this Friday-Saturday, is showing for next weekend. Let’s see how it looks on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™