Spectacular Conditions

Jonathan Carr
By June 16, 2022 15:47

Spectacular Conditions

Discussion: Another stormy night/overnight is expected tonight (Thursday night) however this won’t bring the relief just yet. Tonight will just be another area of concentrated convergence between the oceanic high’s return flow and the establishing warm sector from our W. When tonight/tomorrow morning’s action clears, we’ll still be in a soupy warm sector air mass. For that reason, tomorrow (Friday) looks like the warmest day of the week/weekend with the highest heat indices. Eventually, by Friday evening, a cold front will push the heat and humidity out for the weekend from NW to SE. As of right now the Friday PM cold front looks mostly dry but let’s allow scattered showers and thunderstorms just because of science. Cold air will be wedging into warm soupy air at the lower levels causing lift and condensation. It just makes sense. But if the frontal passage occurs later Friday night then there will be less diurnal heating to feed instability. Again, let’s just allow for it Friday night in case. After that, the weekend looks beautiful with NW flow at the surface (thanks to high pressure over the Great Lakes + low pressure over Maine = a northern jet for NJ). This should put the W side of a trough over NJ for the entire weekend and into next week meaning stacked cool flow from Canada. At the surface this means Saturday and Sunday will be extremely pleasant in the 70s during the day and 50s/lower-60s at night. This should spill into Monday/Tuesday before the trough ejects and allows the hot ridge in the W US to slide into the E US. Therefore Tuesday into next weekend looks warm and humid.

Friday (June 17) high temperatures should reach the 85-90 range for most areas. Perhaps some lower-90s for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds to start with a very humid feel. Showers and thunderstorms are possible during afternoon-evening hours as a cold front passes through. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (June 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most areas. NWNJ elevations might struggle to break out of the upper-60s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

Sunday (June 19 – Juneteenth) high temperatures should reach the lmid 70s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates the pleasant conditions spilling through Monday into Tuesday but then a warmup Tuesday into next weekend. Not sure we’re going to see a multiple 90+ heatwave but certainly mid-to-upper 80s with humidity—and all the fun that comes with that including random pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By June 16, 2022 15:47