Stellar Conditions (Sept 21-25)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 20, 2020 22:31

Stellar Conditions (Sept 21-25)

Discussion: High pressure, in general, will continue to dominate the Mid-Atlantic US weather pattern this week. This means dry sinking air region-wide and ultimately pleasant and sunny at the surface. As high pressure drifts around the E US we’ll see different anti-cyclonic wind conditions resulting in different daytime high temperatures. The start of this week should feature N flow/cooler temperatures. As we get into mid-week and heading into the weekend we’ll likely see S flow get involved for warmer temperatures. But it should still feel pleasant with lower humidity. Honestly, weather conditions look stellar this week. A note for the ECNJ and SENJ coasts: Hurricane Teddy is near Bermuda and will be tracking northward, way out to sea. While our air conditions will be amazing, the surf could feature strong/dangerous rip tides and possibly some minor coastal flooding on Monday. Such coastal surf conditions should subside for Tuesday PM-forward as flow becomes NW and Teddy gains latitude. But while Teddy is at or below NJ latitude, it will push water towards the E US coast which again should primarily be for Monday into Tuesday AM. Other than that, the tropics remain on fire (into the Greek alphabet for naming now) but no systems currently pose a threat for NJ. I’ll be watching in case that changes. The early part of next week is in the extreme long-range forecasting period from right now. But some model guidance is showing an interesting upper-level pattern of meridional flow and cyclonic vorticity. In theory this would produce strong S flow and heavy rain but we need to get closer to the actual period before discussing expected surface conditions.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (Sept 21) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light for most out of the NE, breezier for the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coast. Surf should be rough with minor coastal flooding possible. Overnight lows should range from  mid-30s to near-50 from elevations to sea.

Tuesday (Sept 22) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to sea.  

Wednesday (Sept 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SENJ might break 80. Skies should be mostly sunny with low humidity. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to sea.  

Thursday (Sept 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. Once again, interior CNJ/SENJ has the best chance to break 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to sea.  

Friday (Sept 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from low-50s to near-60 from elevations to sea.

An early look at the weekend indicates the dry, sunny, and pleasant conditions spilling into Saturday. Sunday looks a bit unsettled with some rain around. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 20, 2020 22:31