Stormy Start. 4th Looking Good!

Discussion: This morning there was a stationary boundary draped across SNJ which is now advancing northward through CNJ as a warm front. This is the culprit for the current CNJ/SNJ storms firing along the extended Mason Dixon line and points in NJ just N of that. These cells are near-stationary and therefore are more capable of producing flash flooding/hail rather than severe wind gusts. With that said, I expect severe criteria to be limited to isolated areas, not widespread. But I expect solid downpours for those under the near-stationary cells. This unsettled and destabilized boundary should then remain somewhat draped across NJ through Tuesday and into some of Wednesday.  Then, a trough/upper low will approach and drive the boundary (and associated rain/storms S and E out to sea). There’s some uncertainty on the models as to whether some remnant shower activity could be around for Thursday. What makes the most meteorological sense to me is that the rain pushes offshore by late Wednesday morning/early Wednesday afternoon and NJ stays drier with low humidity Thursday, Friday and some of Saturday. Thursday would be a step down in humidity and Friday would then be the greatest point of relief. Remember, a mid-summer cold front has more to do with humidity reduction than temps. And drier air means higher temps. But with that said, by the time we get to Friday, we could see temps in the mid-80s with dew points in the 50s (miraculous sunny dry feel for Friday July 4^th). The weekend looks good from this vantage point. Not seeing rain. Def seeing humidity returning by Saturday afternoon and sticking around (Dad joke) for Sunday. So, isolated stormy/humid today (Monday), tomorrow and part of Wednesday, Improving Wednesday night and Thursday, amazing Friday (for all outdoor activities), then back to summery feel Saturday-Sunday.

Forecast

Monday (June 30) high temperatures should easily reach the 80s for most NJ locations and possibly just over 90 along the I-95/NJTP corridor. Skies should be mixed with sun, clouds, and occasional showers/thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should stay above 70 statewide and above 75 for some CNJ/SNJ areas.

Tuesday (July 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most NJ locations. Skies should remain variable and stormy. Best guess is a morning round of storms and then an afternoon/evening round of the strongest storms of the series. Could easily push into Wednesday morning. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 statewide.

Wednesday (July 2) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations. Expect rain/storms to still be around for the first half of the day. Skies should then improve Wednesday night but humidity will take its time clearing out. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-70 range NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (July 3) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations. A few spots just over 90. The less humid feel should remain. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. NNJ has a small chance of isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms that could push S into some of CNJ/SNJ but again, very isolated and low chance. The better expectation is that conditions continue to improve after the current action clears out by Wednesday. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-70 range NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (July 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s with a less humid feel. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 55-68 with the drier feel hanging around. A great day for outdoor interests including firework shows at night.

An early look at the weekend (July 5-6) indicates great July 4^th weekend conditions continuing. Not seeing rain although humidity will likely return starting Saturday. I’ll do a detailed July 4^th weekend outlook this Thursday. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC