Stormy Start (Nov 30-Dec 4)

Jonathan Carr
By November 29, 2020 14:09

Stormy Start (Nov 30-Dec 4)

Discussion: A pattern change is still expected to begin with a stormy Monday (Nov 30). The upper levels will be very meridional with lower height anomalies dominating as far out as I can comfortably see (out to about Dec 10). At the surface this likely means a few disturbances pushing through on the front sides of the several troughs that will set up. Monday’s event looks warm and windy. A few inches of rain could fall with wind gusts of 40-60mph out of the SE. Parts of SNJ might even see some thunderstorm action. Also cannot rule out some coastal flooding (likely just minor) for extreme SNJ/SENJ from the strong onshore SE winds. Once the cold front pushes through, the rest of the week should have a colder feel as highs struggle to escape the 40s most days. You might see some mixed precipitation on Tuesday from remnant upper-level energy. The surface however should be too warm for any sort of stickage. I am still very interested in the period that begins on Dec 5 out through the remaining of long-range guidance (about Dec 13). Honing in on Dec 5-7 for the first event. My gut says that one of these disturbances will produce snow for NJ to welcome in the cold season. Meteorological winter starts on Dec 1. Astronomical winter starts on Dec 21. Either way, it’s time to start the cold season and begin tracking snow systems. We’ll have to monitor any of the expected disturbances that kick up on the front sides of the troughs.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (Nov 30) high temperatures should range from near-50 to upper-60s from elevations to sea. Skies should be stormy for most AM hours and some of afternoon PM hours. Periods of heavy rain and gusty winds (40-60mph out of SE) are likely. Thunderstorms are possible, especially in the morning for SNJ. Minor coastal flooding is possible for extreme SNJ/SENJ. Conditions should improve (rain ends + winds subside) from late-afternoon and forward. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s.

Tuesday (Dec 1) high temperatures should reach near-50. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out a few isolated showers. Winds should be breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should drop to near-freezing for most areas.

Wednesday (Dec 2) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to lower-30s from elevations to sea.

Thursday (Dec 3) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s.

Friday (Dec 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few showers around. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from elevations to sea.

An early look at the weekend indicates highs in the upper-40s/lower-50s and lows in the 20s and 30s. Model guidance is starting to pick up on the Dec 5-7 period, I identified this past Wednesday, for potential snow. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By November 29, 2020 14:09