Stormy Start to a Humid Week

Discussion: The upper jet has formed a ring of fire pattern across the US. This should hold until about Tuesday. This means that a central US ridge will form with the upper jet aligned from the W/NW over NJ. This setup naturally creates a highway for storm energy to track from the Great Lakes area to the Mid-Atlantic US—along a warm front. There’s a good chance that at least a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) will form Tuesday morning and take a similar track. There’s still some uncertainty as to whether the system will hit DC or SNJ the hardest. But NENJ would have the least chance of severe impact while SWNJ would have the greatest. I’ll likely do an article tomorrow focused on expected impacts. Once that energy system clears out, the ridge will establish more for the E US, and we’ll bake. No real sign of humidity relief after whatever happens Tuesday morning either. The warm front will be crossing over NJ from SW to NE at that time. A slow humid run up from 80s to eventually 90s Friday is expected.  The weekend then looks cooler and drier with high pressure pushing a cold front through. With that said, it’s probably wise to assume at least some level of storminess Friday night into Saturday morning.

Monday (June 13) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most areas, maybe flirt with 90 in some. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should hover around 60.

Tuesday (June 14) high temperatures should reach the 75-80 range. The day could start stormy with intense winds (see discussion above) but should improve by afternoon. Humidity should remain elevated. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE (after the AM storm threat passes). Overnight lows should fall to the 60-65 range.

Wednesday (June 15) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the E, maybe breezy along the ocean.

Thursday (June 16) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should stay just above 70 for most.

Friday (June 17) high temperatures should reach into the 90s for most areas. Even the immediate coast is looking hot. Skies should be hazy, hot, and humid with thunderstorms possible during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall back into the 60s.

An early look at the weekend indicates temps cooling off after Friday, for Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the 70s type stuff. Not seeing any rain systems currently but let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™