Strong Winds Expected Thursday

Jonathan Carr
By March 30, 2022 15:19

Strong Winds Expected Thursday

Discussion: The warm front is just about through. We’ll cool some tonight but it won’t be like the last few nights. Tomorrow looks very mild with temps likely reaching 70 or greater for most areas. Skies should be mixed with mostly clouds and some sun. It should feel very unsettled and for good reason. Showers could break out at any time ahead of the main storm front later. NJ will be in the warm sector where winds are expected to rip pretty good.

Winds should pick up tomorrow from about noon-forward. I’m expecting gusts of 30-45mph out of the S/SW from about noon until the storm front moves through. It is important to separate these synoptic scale winds, that should occur for most of the afternoon/evening from the winds associated with any localized severe thunderstorm instances. The latter is capable of producing the highest wind gusts.

The storm front(s) – there could be a few waves – should push through NJ from W to E between early evening Thursday night and early Friday morning. Right now it looks like WNJ is favored for harder storms than ENJ with typical fizzling likely with loss of sunlight and marine influence. But again, rain showers are possible all-day Thursday in the ripping warm sector. It might be the early hours of Friday morning that the worst winds and thunderstorms come through. It depends how the precipitation and energy separates along with the separation of the lows. The S low should pass right over NJ which could enhance lifting and winds. For these reasons, you can’t rule out the chance for a tornado, especially for CPA/EPA/WNJ where the dynamics will be greater.

Friday into the weekend still looks to improve with dry conditions. But the chilly theme remains with highs likely capped at 55-60 and overnight lows still into the 30s. It should feel okay considering the recent cold but not quite as mild as you’d like it to be. First part of April still looks chilly as well. Transient warmth and prolonged cold. Sustainable warmth not in sight for probably at least 1-2 weeks.

In English: Thursday will be very mild compared to recent cold days. Winds should pick up around noon and persist through the afternoon evening with gusts of 30-45mph out of the SW. Then a series of storms will push through from W to E between Thursday evening and early Friday morning. These storms could produce heavy downpours and wind gusts to 60mph. Tornado not off the table. But once the storms are through, the winds should relax for the weekend. The weekend looks dry and chilly but sunny daytime hours should feel nice after recent cold. Have a great rest of your Wednesday and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By March 30, 2022 15:19