Summer Continues Fading (Sept 8-11)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 7, 2020 15:44

Summer Continues Fading (Sept 8-11)

Dan Mueller Financial Advisor

Discussion: The upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ this weekend. 500mb geopotential heights should back in from the E/NE and build over the E US—flexing ~Thursday AM before upper-flow becomes more W/NW instead of W/SW. This should produce warmer and more humid conditions for the surface from Tuesday through Thursday with a cool down Friday-Saturday. The pattern seems volatile and transient after that (back to warm/humid Sunday-Monday…back to cooler/drier Tuesday-forward, etc.). Wednesday PM into Thursday looks like the most unsettled period of the week. Showers and maybe some embedded t-storms are possible. An area of high pressure should then float through from W to E, just to the N of NJ. This should bring cooler/drier flow out of the N/NE or NE for Friday-Saturday then warmer and more humid return flow for Sunday-Monday. Friday and Saturday would likely be clearer. Sunday-Monday could be cloudier from onshore flow transitioning from E to SE. As far as the tropics go, the Cape Verde origin is very active right now. But most systems (Paulette, TD 18, etc.) are expected to re-curve (from E tropical trade winds into mid-latitude westerlies) short of reaching the US. Will continue to monitor the active status of the Atlantic hurricane basin but there are no current tropical threats to NJ. We’re getting to that time of year where the cooler/drier period duration will increase, and warmer/humid periods will become more transient in nature. We cannot be too far from the first day of pumpkin-spiced latte craziness. While in the extreme long-range of model guidance, there is a pretty hard cold front ~Sept 20. You should all be noticing the reduction in daylight and lower sun angle by now. Summer continues fading.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Tuesday (Sept 8) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most areas, perhaps closer to 90 for areas away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to sea.

Wednesday (Sept 9) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with a humid feel. A small chance of showers exists mainly for PM into overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from elevations to sea.

Thursday (Sept 10) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a humid feel. Let’s allow a few showers and isolated thunderstorm chances given the temp profile. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to sea.

Friday (Sept 11) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be overcast with clouds with some (not total) humidity relief. Winds should be light out of the N/NE, breezier along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates dry conditions (rain-wise). Clouds are a hard call since SE onshore flow could be involved. But the weekend overall seems like this past weekend, a cool dry start leading to a warmer and more humid finish.

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 7, 2020 15:44