Summer to Flex Harder

Discussion: The upper jet, observed at 250mb, should stay to the N of NJ through Wednesday and then dip below NJ heading into the weekend. This jives with 500mb analysis of a broad central US ridge giving way to a weak progressive trough. At the surface this means heat and humidity should rage through Wednesday, take a transitional but unsettled step down Thursday-Friday, and ultimately lead to a pleasant-feeling weekend. The C US ridge through Wednesday keeps upper flow out of the W/NW which could introduce some more Canadian wildfire smoke into our NJ skies. As if hot and humid wasn’t uncomfortable enough, we could also deal with smoke. Ugh. This is the heat exhaustion/heat stroke kind of stuff. Know the difference and stay as cool and hydrated as your situation allows for. Monday (today) and Tuesday look rain free in a capped environment but Wednesday brings back rain and thunderstorm chances by PM hours as a slow-moving frontal boundary begins to push through. This should lower temps for Thursday and Friday but keep it unsettled, rainy and stormy. Friday should start rainy/stormy but N flow from the approaching tip of a progressive weak trough should push all this crap to the S of NJ by Friday night as overnight lows drop to a dryer-feeling 50s. Saturday and Sunday look gorgeous as of now with highs near-80 and lows in the 50s all with low humidity and clear skies. The tropics remain quiet but we’re rapidly approaching the heart of hurricane season. Nothing to track for now but you know I’ll be monitoring. So hot, humid and possibly smokey Monday-Wednesday, cloudy and rainy Thursday-Friday, then refreshing and pleasant Friday night through Sunday.

Forecast

Monday (July 28) high temperatures are maxing in the low-to-mid 90s for many locations with the coast hovering in the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should remain mostly clear and sunny with an uncomfortable humid feel. Winds should remain light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall to about 70 for most NJ locations as humidity rages on.

Tuesday (July 29) high temperatures should approach 100 for many NJ locations. Even the coast should exceed 90. Skies should be mostly sunny with continued relentless humidity. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 65-75 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (July 30) high temperatures should again be very hot like Tuesday. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds and continued humidity, but thunderstorm/downpour chances return for PM hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should stay above 70 statewide and in some cases above 75 as humidity and storm chances rage on.

Thursday (July 31) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Not as hot as the start to the week but still warm and sticky. Skies should start mixed but transition to more clouds than sun with more rain and thunderstorm chances possible for PM hours. Overnight lows should range from 65-73 as rain and storm chances persist into Friday morning.

Friday (Aug 1) high temperatures should only top-out in the mid-to-upper 70s. Should be quite a change from earlier in the week. Still humid though with rain chances favoring morning hours, wrapping up by afternoon. Winds should be light to breezy out of the N which should eventually push this tropical air mass to the S of NJ. With that said, overnight lows should range from 50-65 NNJ to SNJ with noticeably decreasing humidity and stiff N winds.  

An early look at the weekend (Aug 2-3) indicates relief from temperatures and humidity. Dry-feeling highs in the 80s and overnight lows down into the 50s…all with clear skies. If you can tolerate this week, this weekend will be a nice light at the end of the tunnel.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC