Summery but Slightly Unsettled (Aug 16-18)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 16, 2019 15:48

Summery but Slightly Unsettled (Aug 16-18)

Discussion: The upper-level jet should remain flat and zonal across the region with no major jet streaks to contend with. By the end of the weekend/start of next week we might see a split-flow pattern emerge just to our W however that should only preserve the heat and humidity as upper-level ridging builds in and lasts through the weekend. A cold front should move through towards the end of the week but this should offer very little relief. It might feel better for a few hours after the frontal passage but then we’re right back to warmth as upper-level ridging sustains through the weekend. At the surface expect more of the same until the front…warm and sunny for most of the day with PM showers and thunderstorms. The weekend should be a little less unsettled behind the front and under the established ridge. We’re entering peak hurricane season but conditions for tropical development are still unfavorable. The dry Saharan air mass continues to stabilize the tropical Atlantic and tropical forcing is not impressive. The only way tropical impact is possible is for something to form closer to the SE US (since it will likely not form out in the trade winds between Africa and the Caribbean). With nothing showing on even long-range model guidance I just don’t see anything forming through at least the end of August. September is too far away to accurately discuss but we’ll have to assume at least some non-NJ activity to form.  

Friday night (Aug 16) low temperatures should dip into the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. ENJ/SNJ coastal areas could hang near-70. Showers and thunderstorms will be around but not widespread. Winds should remain out of the SE.

Saturday (Aug 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should be partly sunny and humid with a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly for NNJ. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from upper-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (Aug 18) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ will likely break 90. Skies should be mostly clear and humid with PM showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates warm and humid conditions lasting through about Thursday. A cold front in the ~Thursday-Friday period should bring some relief for the weekend but nothing to write home about. I wouldn’t expect pumpkin latte weather but likely just a small and temporary single digit drop in temperatures and humidity while still remaining warm overall. The pattern should remain unsettled (mix of sun and clouds for most of the day but then isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms possible especially during PM hours) until the cold front moves through. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 16, 2019 15:48