Sustained Warmth Settles In

Discussion: Upper-level analysis confirms that we are now under the influence of the Omega block, particularly the N flow moving down and around the W side of the leading trough. This is going to produce northerly winds in general between now and Wednesday evening. This will keep afternoon high temps at bay as well as produce a refreshing low-humidity feel. By Thursday, winds will switch to more of a W or W/SW direction and begin pumping in warmer and more humid air. Instead of highs capped in the 70s/lower-80s, we’ll transition to 80s and 90s for Thursday-Friday. While most model guidance keeps NJ dry from now (Monday) straight into Saturday morning, I am suspicious that at least some isolated showers, possibly isolated thunderstorms, could form during two points. First would be the invasion of the warmer more humid air Wednesday night into Thursday. Second are isolated air mass thunderstorms that could form in the hot and more humid Thursday-Friday environments. Again, isolated not widespread. But it is certainly possible that the next rain drops hold off until Saturday. Saturday-Sunday looks “summery and unsettled” meaning more humidity and a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday looks like more of the same from this week until afternoon hours introduce the thunderstorms. Sunday looks cloudier and more unsettled than Saturday. The following week is presenting as rainy from this distance. I am looking for that forecast to hold but need to give it until about Friday to gain confidence.

Forecast

Monday (June 1) high temperatures, for the most part, have maxed out in the low-to-mid 70s. A few spots away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ tried to hit 80. Skies should remain mostly sunny with a few clouds, even some possible micro-showers, around. Winds should remain light out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall to the 40-50 range NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (June 2) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations, closer to 70 near the ECNJ/SENJ coast. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NW, perhaps a little more E along the coast. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ as dry conditions persist.

Wednesday (June 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Coasties more of a mid-70s situation. Skies should remain mostly sunny with a pleasant feel (low humidity)…a more comfortable 80 not a muggy 80. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-60 range NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (June 4) high temperatures should reach 90 for many NJ locations. Coasties closer to 80. Regardless a hotter day with humidity just starting to trickle back in. Skies should be mostly sunny although the recipe for isolated showers/tstorms would not be off the table should a se breeze front provide enough lift off the ocean…very isolated if so and likely not at all. Just worth a mention. Winds should be light out of the W/SW otherwise with overnight lows falling to the 50-65 range NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (June 5) high temperatures should break 90 again for many NJ locations…likely a few degrees hotter than Thursday. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should stay above 60 statewide and in some cases 65 (CNJ/SNJ).

An early look at the weekend (June 6-7) indicates sustained warmer temperatures. Perhaps not as hot as Thurs-Fri but still well into the 80s. Saturday afternoon/evening looks like the first day for heat-breaking thunderstorms to arrive which should push over into a cloudier Sunday. The following week looks rainier but we need to get a few days closer to increase confidence. This week is going to feature very dry and sunny conditions as the expense of more damage to our ground water concerns. Please be vigilant re: fire risk/safety concerns. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC