Thanksgiving Travel Plan

Discussion: Not much to deduce from the upper levels as most flow is zonal with alternating height profiles. If you are going to travel this week, it will be dry today through tomorrow afternoon. Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night and into early Wednesday AM looks rainy and windy. Conditions then improve Wednesday morning through the rest of the week/weekend. So, if you are trying to avoid the inclement travel weather, avoid Tuesday PM (starting Tuesday afternoon) into Wednesday AM (ending by 7am) hours. Thanksgiving then looks dry and very traditional feeling, a little breeze around, and that should stick through the rest of this coming weekend. Beyond that I see a very active pattern with disturbances pushing through almost every 4-5 days. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some snow work in for one of them, especially the first week of December. I’ll be watching. But winter IS coming.

Monday (Nov 20) high temperatures only reached the mid-to-upper 40s for most NJ locations today (Monday). Plenty of sun with light N winds. But after a colder day comes a colder night with most NJ locations falling below freezing. Immediate coastal areas might hang closer to 40 while the typical colder locations of NJ fall well into the 20s. Possible teens for higher NNJ elevations.

Tuesday (Nov 21) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain moving in likely by afternoon and falling steadily overnight into Wednesday morning. Rain could be heavy at times with breezy-to-gusty winds off the ocean. Coastal areas should encounter the higher wind values than areas away from the ocean. Run-of-mill rainstorm winds. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (Nov 22) high temperatures should reach at least the mid-50s for most NJ areas. Skies could start off cloudy and rainy but should improve by late-morning/early-afternoon. Not seeing much rain after about 7am. This should help with travel concerns. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-40 for most NJ locations.

Thursday (Nov 23 – Thanksgiving Day) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny but winds could be breezy out of the W/NW. Not a bad day for the many that are traveling. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (Nov 24) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as we turn back colder for the weekend.

An early look at the weekend indicates sun and clouds with little-to-no rain. Colder though with highs maxing in the 40s and overnight lows falling into the 20s for most. Elevations should eye up teens while coastal areas bottom out just above freezing. Watching a possible rainy disturbance moving in for Sunday but more data is needed over the next few days. Have a great Thanksgiving and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™