Thanksgiving Weather Outlook

Discussion: We’re now in an expected milder air mass until about Wednesday, with Wednesday likely to peak as the warmest day of the week. We are then going to drop into a colder Thanksgiving Thursday through Sunday morning with another “early taste of winter is coming” air mass. We had one a few weeks ago. Here comes another. We then moderate Sunday before dropping again for a weak snow signal showing up Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Then after Dec 5, all signs continue to point towards a colder pattern setting in as we approach the start of calendar winter. In the meantime, the rubber band will continue to snap back and forth between mild and cold.

The trough that looks to settle into the region this Thursday-Saturday looks solid. Not as anomalous as the trough a few weeks ago but now that we’re deeper into the cold season climatologically, it should be just as cold. A ridge then temporarily builds Sunday which brings us back closer to average before another trough moves in later next week and that’s the one I am watching the front of for snow next week as early as Tuesday/Wednesday. But for the immediate period, unfortunately, some rain moves through this Tuesday-Wednesday (Nov 25-26) which will be suboptimal for holiday travel interests. But the good news is that Thanksgiving Day looks dry and much improved from Wednesday, despite colder. As the colder air moves in after Thanksgiving, especially Friday, I’ll be watching for more lake-effect snow streamers out of the W/NW. More to come.

Forecast

Monday (Nov 24) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly clear giving way to clouds by evening/overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 30-40 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (Nov 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s again. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain possible for afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should stay in the 45-55 range as rain persists overnight.

Wednesday (Nov 26) high temperatures should range from upper-50s to mid-60s from NNJ to SNJ. The mildest day of the week. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with more periods of rain possible…suboptimal for Thanksgiving travel interests. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Rain should end for evening/overnight hours as temps drop to the 30-40 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (Nov 27 – Thanksgiving Day) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny but with a colder feel. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the upper-20s/lower-30s with most NJ locations looking at temperatures at or just below freezing.

Friday (Nov 28) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most NJ locations. NNJ elevations might not make it out of the upper-30s. Skies should be mixed with sun and flat-bottom wind clouds. Can’t rule out some lake-effect snow streamers but they are impossible to predict precise location. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW making it feel even colder. Overnight lows should fall below freezing statewide with much of NJ down into the 20s. We saw our first early taste of winter last week. This will be the next.

An early look at the weekend (Nov 29-30) indicates more cold conditions Saturday into Sunday morning where highs max in the upper-30s/lower-40s and overnight lows fall below freezing statewide. Sunday daytime starts a short moderation. Then, believe it or not, I see a weak snow signal next week that will need to be watched. Everyone have a great Thanksgiving and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC