The Dog Days of Summer are Here

Discussion: The upper jet and upper heights look zonal and average this week. Nothing out of the ordinary. The general pattern will be an upper low/trough located over SC Canada/NC US with ridging for NW US and extreme NE US/SE Canada. This should present an overall W or W/SW flow aloft into NJ with more of a S/SW surface flow…a recipe for heat and humidity to push into NJ from the SE US. Much of the week looks dry in general although it’s hard to use the word dry with the expected humidity and feel. Rainfall is possible on any day from any isolated shower or thunderstorms that form but no synoptic rain or frontal systems are expected. Extreme hit-or-miss with most missing. We’ll take what we can get rainfall-wise though. Friday looks the most unsettled this week while Tues-Thurs look pretty good.  In other news, the ocean temperatures along the NJ beaches are into the low-mid 70s now. Therefore, any sea breezes and or onshore flow will feel heavenly after the typical AM heat build each day. This means that air temps along the beach could drop from 90 to 75 in a few minutes once the sea breeze comes onshore. Sea breezes typically form between 11am and 3pm each day before pushing into the ECNJ/SENJ from the E. I expect to see a few of them this week, visible via radar clutter. These sea breeze fronts can also (not every time) act as meso-fronts for thunderstorm ignition. You’ll know this is happening when the cumulous clouds transition into cumulonimbus clouds by 1) the height of the cloud (looks like a nuke with popcorn texture top) and/or 2) How dark a white seagull looks against the black sky…you just know when you see it.

Monday (July 10) high temperatures, as of this afternoon (Monday), have maxed out in the low-to-mid 80s. Skies are mixed with sun and clouds. Winds are light out of the W/NW and humidity is slightly lower than it has been, but still present. Overnight lows should range from 55-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (July 11) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Coastal areas should hang in the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the W (beach flies!). Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (July 12) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s for most areas. Even coastal areas could get near 90. A hot beach weather lover’s paradise. Hell if you’re not near water. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Heat indices should approach 100 so stay hydrated and as cool as your environment permits. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 65-75 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (July 13) high temperatures should reach the upper-80s/lower-90s for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Coastal areas should hang in the mid-80s. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun and a humid feel. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most NJ locations.

Friday (July 14) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most of New Jersey. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with more humidity and possible isolated showers/thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall back to near-70.

An early look at the weekend indicates more of the same typical July/summer conditions. Highs 85-93 with humidity making it feel closer to 95-100. Mostly sunny days until afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms pop on an isolated basis. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™