The Good Stuff is Coming (May 11-15)

Discussion: The upper-jet is now over NJ and will eventually move N of NJ by Thursday with a correlating air mass of above-average 500mb geopotential height anomalies (ridging) over NJ. That warmer upper-level pattern then looks to sustain for the foreseeable future. At the surface we have some lifting today by the nearby-departing low. That should keep today (Monday) cloudy with a few showers and t-storms around. An area of high pressure should then dominate the pattern through Friday. First, we see the front-side NW-N anticyclonic flow in the form of cold/wind for tonight through Wednesday. Then we’ll see the back-side anticyclonic S/SW flow in the form of mild temperatures Thursday-forward. With that said we have a warm front moving through from S/SW to N/NE Thursday-into-Friday and a decaying cold front Friday into Saturday held-off mostly from the departing high flow. But both the warm front and decaying cold front offer the only chances of rain which seems low as of now. Otherwise we have a really nice spring pattern setting up (finally) from this Thursday-forward. We just have to make it through a few more days of below-average temperatures including the cold night Tuesday into Wednesday.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecasts are statewide for New Jersey.

Monday (May 11) high temperatures should reach near-60. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms around. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (May 12) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to near-60 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (May 13) high temperatures should reach near-60. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-50.

Thursday (May 14) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks. Winds should be light out of the S/SW perhaps a little breezier for immediate coastal areas. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (May 15) high temperatures should at least reach into the 70s, possibly 80s in traditional warmer locations (CNJ/SNJ away from the ocean). Skies should be mostly sunny but can’t rule out an extremely isolated afternoon/evening spring shower or pop-up thunderstorm. But for the most part this day looks miraculous.

An early look at the weekend indicates warm and mild conditions lasting through the weekend. I can’t promise a few isolated/traditional spring showers and pop-up thunderstorms wont happen. But I am fairly confident that as of Friday-forward we turn the corner into a prolonged pattern of sustainable warmth with highs reaching at least 70 most days. Let’s take another look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™