The Good Stuff is Here

Discussion: The upper jet and heights are suggesting a series of upper lows/troughs swinging through this week. A cold front is currently riding the front of a trough and pushing through NJ from W to E which is dropping dew points (humidity) as we speak. Dews were just under 70 this morning. As of now (1:15pm) they have dropped into the 50s. The cold front seems mostly dry today however common meteorology would suggest allowing at least a small extremely localized pop-up shower or thunderstorm from the frontal lift. Though I suspect most will remain dry today. This frontal passage starts a stretch of pleasant-feeling mostly dry weather. The only possible shower activity I see is Friday. Other than that, slightly below average temperatures, ample sunshine, friendly clouds, low humidity, chilly nights and dry skies should be the theme through Labor Day. This will be due to being stuck in the backside of several troughs rounding through the Mid-Atlantic and NE US (NW flow). Friday’s shower potential would be from upper-level disturbance (upper low passing overhead/nearb) not from surface convection. But yeah, aside from the Friday rain potential, the next 7-8 days in general look immaculate for NJ weather conditions. Nightmare stuff for dressing to the weather as daytime could feel warm and night time could feel chilly with sharp transitions during sunrise and sunset. Could a string of 90s return in Sept, or even Oct? Sure, we’ve seen that in the past. But for at least the next 1-2 weeks, the pattern suggests no more days of unbearable heat and humidity. Some would call that “summer over” which might seem true from a student/teacher point of view re: pool, beach, boat activity, etc. A strange summer for sure as we started the year with a drought, transitioned into a rainy/stormy pattern, then a relentless humid pattern, and now some late summer magic feel. It’s almost as if this year is flexing the known attributes of each seasonal period. Let us hope this pattern continues into the winter for snow lovers…a colorful foliage fall followed by a snowy winter. With that said, we have lost  103 minutes (1 hour and 43 minutes) of daylight since ~the June solstice…well into our decent towards the colder months.

Forecast

Monday (Aug 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Just a super small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm but most should stay dry. Winds will eventually be switching from SW to W/NW with the cold frontal passage which will drop humidity for a pleasant feeling night. Overnight lows should should drop to the 50-60 range for most NJ locations with coastal areas hanging just above 60.

Tuesday (Aug 26) high temperatures should reach the 75-80 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds and a pleasant feel (lower humidity). Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-60 range for most NJ locations.

Wednesday (Aug 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds and with a continued pleasant look and feel. Winds should be light, occasionally breezy, out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-50 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Likely the best feeling night of late-summer so far.

Thursday (Aug 28) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s with a pleasant look and feel. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from low-50s to low-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (Aug 29) high temperatures should reach the 75-80 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with showers around. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-60 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend (Aug 30-31) indicates nice conditions continuing with more sun than clouds and a pleasant look and feel right through Labor Day. I’m monitoring the tropics since we’re in peak hurricane season however no immediate foreseeable threats are present.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC