The Warm Season Begins (May 15-17)

Discussion: Some passing isolated showers later today/tonight but no big deal. The warm season has begun! The weekend looks pretty good Friday through Sunday AM however there is lots to discuss. Upper-level 250mb analysis indicates the jet staying to the N of NJ with the exception of next Tuesday-Thursday with the coastal mess (will discuss more in a bit). 500mb geopotential height analysis indicates a sea of above-average height anomalies with again, the exception of next week’s coastal business. For this weekend, we have a broad area of high pressure near Bermuda that should stay in place from today (Thursday) through Saturday. This will give us the milder push of air mass from the high’s back-side anti-cyclonic flow (aka return flow). Friday will likely be the warmest day with the greatest build of diurnal instability (should feel summery). By the time the thin storm line pushes through, from NW to SE, late-Friday/early-Saturday, instability will be on the downslope with loss of sunlight. Saturday then looks not as warm as Friday but still very nice and mild. A warm front then pushes through Sunday brining back some rain chances. What’s interesting is we might have our first named storm of the tropical season moving up the east coast Sunday through Tuesday. It could be tropical or sub-tropical but should stay off the coast. It should then move further out into the Atlantic Ocean but leave a piece of energy behind to form another coastal storm near OBX for Wednesday. The energy would merge with an approaching upper-level shortwave to form a cut-off upper-level low. This secondary coastal event could impact NJ with clouds, rain and onshore winds Wednesday-Thursday. Friday would then be a day of improving conditions…and that might take most of Friday before improvement is seen. It’s a bit out of range right now but this would theoretically set up a nice and mild Saturday, Sunday and Monday of Memorial Day Weekend. So a very warm Friday, short-duration rain/storms Friday night into early Saturday morning, a beautiful Saturday, rain showers returning for Sunday, a nuisance Monday-Thursday of clouds, rain and wind, and ultimately a nice Memorial Day Weekend.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey.

Friday (May 15) high temperatures should reach 80 for many locations. Immediate coastal points could hang in the 70s. Interior CNJ/SNJ could run up into the 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds during the day. Showers and thunderstorms are possible later for PM hours. Late-evening for NWNJ. Early Sat AM for the rest of NJ. Additional radar obs posts will be made accordingly. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-60 for most.

Saturday (May 16) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ could flirt with 80. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should drop into the low-to-mid 50s.

Sunday (May 17) high temperatures should range from mid-60s to near-70 away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas will likely hang closer to 60. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with rain showers possible by afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall to near-50

An early look at next week indicates a gloomy/stormy Monday-Thursday (highs in lower-60s, clouds, heavy rain and wind). Conditions should then improve to set up what currently seems like a drier and mild Memorial Day Weekend. Let’s take a closer look at the holiday weekend in a few days.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™