Thunderstorms Approaching Jersey

Discussion: With actual temps over 90 for most of NJ and dew points well into the 70s, most of NJ is sitting with a heat index of ~100-110 less Sussex County…as of about 4pm. I’m seeing some high levels of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) at the surface and mixed layers. Lifted Index is almost -10 in some locations. This tells me that the atmosphere is very buoyant and supportive of lifting air (destabilized).

The soundings also indicate marginal-to-adequate wind shear values to support thunderstorm development and maintenance as a linear stormfront. No capping inversion is present which tells me there is little to prevent thunderstorm development along and ahead of the stormfront.

A cold front is draped across SWPA to NEPA into New England but it appears a pre-frontal trough is trying to run ahead of it as a stormfront for NJ this evening. Both features depending on the angle they zip up towards NJ have lifting trigger potential once they push through NJ. These are all the main ingredients for a classic mid-summer stormfront that should push through NJ from W to E this evening between about 5pm and 9pm.

Given the higher Precipitable Water (PWAT) values, the downpours of rain should be more than capable of producing localized flash flooding. I don’t need to tell you how humid it feels outside right now. If the physics throw that surface air up into the condensation zone, it’s going to pour down.

In English: I expect everyone to at least get in on a brief period of rain with rumbles likely this evening…seems like a safe widespread and reasonable expectation. I expect there to be localized instances (not everyone) of frequent lightning, straight line winds and flash flooding. SNJ has the best dynamics for severe storms but all are on the hook. is typically not a tornado setup for NJ but you can take it off the table completely…a small non-zero chance with straight line winds more probable. This should all come through from W to E as an organized storm front at an axis similar to I-95. Therefore, NWNJ sees it first (by 5-6pm), the NJTP axis (from SWNJ to NENJ) sees it by 6-7pm, and then lastly, the SENJ coast sees it by 7-9pm. Nine times out of ten, they weaken into exhausting gust fronts for the coast. But there’s always that one out of ten time that storms sustain strength to the coast. Since this stormfront is rolling in during/immediately after peak temperatures, I would lean a little bit towards the holding KABANG potential closer to the coast. I’ll be posting radar observations. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC