Time for Some Changes

Discussion: This article will begin with a rant. The last thunderstorm outbreak (Saturday-Sunday) really bothered me, specifically the disconnect between the professional forecasting base and public consumers of weather forecasting. I absolutely hate that Severe Thunderstorms (for wind) are determined by a single (58mph) wind metric. A binary value is a bad way to represent IMO. I’ve had two trees knocked down in my yard from what would be considered “non-severe thunderstorms” by the 58mph threshold. However, I’ve had 70mph+ gusts leave every tree in my yard intact. Here’s two news flashes: 1) A SPC-defined non-severe thunderstorm can cause severe damage. 2) Wind report data are geographically sparse and therefore damage is a better isolated indicator than anemometers miles away. If the ground is wet, and tree leaves are full, a 55-57mph wind gust can make some big lumber fall into houses, onto roads/cars, etc. What I’m seeing is the public not understanding the SPC predictive graphic notification systems and metrics. I’m also seeing forecasting outlets almost place bets with their followers whether the SPC is right or not….and then getting into an aggressive conversation afterwards that is much more about “who was right” rather than “whoa, everyone ok?” There shouldn’t be arguments between the public and pro forecasters as to whether or not a thunderstorm is/was severe or not. Res Ipsa Loquitor…the storm dropped a tree into a house! No one owns the word severe.  Both cases of what I’m seeing leave bad tastes in my mouth. So, what I’m going to do is get away from calling thunderstorms severe or non-severe because most forecasting consumers are unaware of such metric thresholds set by offices 1500 miles to the W of NJ. After doing this for so many years, I’ve come to learn that people want to know what it will be like on the ground, not whether or not their geographic location will be inside of a yellow box or not…or in some hatched color graphic area with alien-like acronyms to general consumers. Met to met conversations are ok for that. Seasoned enthusiasts are aware of the lingo. But people, that’s like 10% of weather forecast consumers. So rather than just using the inefficient “severe vs non-severe” designations, I’m going to do my best to describe what the wind damage potential is, hail size, lightning frequency, and rain rates that will actually be on the ground. I will make an infographic chart for this once I finalize the verbiage. But in this forecast, you will start to see my new style for the possible storms this coming Wed-Fri. End rant.

Speaking of changes, at the time of writing this (~11:50pm Monday night), NJ sits under a cooler and drier air mass left in the wake of last night’s cold front passage. Higher aloft, a quick passing trough is moving through and we’re now on the back side of it under northerly flow out of Canada.  Many temps are currently down into the 50s and in some cases 40s. PHL and NYC are more in the 60-65 range mainly due to urban heat island effect (human-made surfaces hold heat better than natural vegetation). A classic example of how radiational cooling behaves re: concrete/pavement vs sand/soil. Once the trough moves out, it’s pretty clear that a ridge will dominate E Canada and most of the E US. This will allow heat and humidity to fill the ridge from the S over Mid-Atlantic US area including all of NJ. Tuesday-Wednesday will be a gradual step-up. Thursday-Friday should slap you in the face with a hot dish cloth. Temps will exceed 90 and dew points will exceed 70. This will be much more of a tropical heat rather than the drier heat we just saw. And with the tropical nature, comes a stormy environment: Relentless humid feel under the sun. Random heavy downpours. Glass fogged at the worst time. I think most storms will be air mass thunderstorms that form mainly from updrafts, suffocate from lack of shear, and then collapse and re-pulse adjacently. There’s no shear or fronts to provide the lifting trigger, only the general hot and humid environment wanting to rise gradually and possibly some sea breeze front lift enhancement. Widespread costly damage? Not likely. Gust fronts producing missing shingles, damage from downed branches and trees, relative isolated power outages? Sure, that’s very possible. So is isolated quarter-to-half-inch hail and frequent lightning given the thermal profile. With the tropical atmosphere, expect tropical-level downpours at times. I hope that’s much easier to understand. My guess is you’re going to see a continued breakdown of communication and understanding and everyone’s going to place their bets against one another. I’ll try my best to keep it real here.  

Forecast

Tuesday (June 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most NJ areas away from the ocean. Coastal regions should stay more in the 70-75 range. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel (low humidity). Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-65 range for most NJ locations as humidity builds back in.

Wednesday (June 10) high temperatures should reach the 75-80 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with showers and thunderstorms around. A more humid feel. Potential thunderstorms look isolated and for the most part non-damaging re: wind and hail. Lightning frequency TBD but only an issue if an isolated cell briefly hits your location. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 65-72 range NNJ to SNJ as humidity remains higher and isolated storms chances persist into early Thursday morning.

Thursday (June 11) high temperatures should push above 90 for most NJ locations. Even coastal regions should push well above 80. Skies should remain mixed with noticeably high humidity and more shower/thunderstorm chances. Thursday looks stormier than Wednesday with storms capable of becoming more damaging wind-wise. The missing roof shingle/downed branches and trees/isolated power outage kind of stuff. I’d expect lightning to be more frequent and downpours to be heavier (than Wednesday). While not under/near a thunderstorm, winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should stay near or just above 70s statewide as conditions improve but humidity lingers.

Friday (June 12) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 90s away from the ocean. Coastal regions should easily reach the 80-85 range. Skies should remain tropical which means sun-burning sun angle, a slew of cumulus clouds, high humidity and thunderstorms. Friday looks a little less stormy than Thursday, however storms could still produce a wind damage profile similar to Thursday (shingles missing/branches and trees down/isolated power outages). I’d expect lightning to be frequent given the heat and humidity profiles. Otherwise, winds should be light out of the W (away from storms) and overnight lows should only fall back to near-70.  

An early look at the weekend (June 13-14) indicates hot temperatures persisting however with lower humidity (broken some by the Thurs-Fri storms). Saturday looks the most settled. Sunday still mostly good but cannot rule out isolated pop-ups in the afternoon. Let’s take another look at the weekend on Friday. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC