Transitional Conditions Expected

Discussion: We have another “trough meeting remnant tropical cyclone” situation this weekend for the E US however most action of interest will be for the Gulf of Maine and SE Canada. Post-Tropical Cyclone Phillippe is currently near Bermuda and is expected to track N/NW to the Gulf of Maine by Sunday morning. Phillippe will have little-to-no impact on NJ outside of minor ocean rip current/surf enhancement today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday). During this time, the trough will move into NJ from the W/NW with a frontal system on the front of it. This front will interact with Phillipe’s remnants tonight and tomorrow which should lead to rain enhancement but mostly for New England. New Jersey is looking to miss out on the heaviest rain. Instead, I am only seeing scattered on-and-off showers for New Jersey with maybe some rumbles in the Friday evening through Saturday afternoon period. Again, most interaction and enhancement should be to the N or NE of New Jersey. However New Jersey should get in on the extreme S side of the action. Enough to shake up outdoor plans through Saturday afternoon but not enough to warrant any level of danger. Mostly a nuisance rain event. The more prominent feature of this weekend is the cold front and weather to follow such. There should be a lull after the rain ends (by Saturday afternoon) and when the actual cold front comes through (closer to sunset). During this time, you won’t see a drastic cooling and conditions should improve greatly. But we’re looking at a different planet after sunset Saturday night. A cold and windy night as a much colder airmass sets up for the week, likely into next weekend. This one should ignite the “everything pumpkin” craze. We’re talking highs in the 60s and lows in the upper-30s/40s with dry conditions.

Friday (Oct 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most NJ locations. Skies started somewhat mixed but as of now (Friday noonish), clouds are increasing in coverage and should continue doing so through afternoon/evening hours. Humidity should remain elevated until the rain clears out later Saturday. Scattered rain showers could start anytime today but likely by evening. Can’t rule out a few boomers, especially overnight. Winds are light out of the E but could become breezier by afternoon/evening. Overnight lows stay just above 60 for most NJ locations as on-and-off periods of rain, possibly rumbles, continue into Saturday.

Saturday (Oct 7) high temperatures should vary drastically from morning to night. Temps should start in the upper-60s/near-70 ballpark and stay that way through afternoon with elevated humidity. Any rain, and possible rumbles, between morning and afternoon should end by late-afternoon, possibly earlier. Then the cold front should come through by evening hours—bringing colder and drier breezy/gusty NW winds. A very noticeable difference in feel through sunset and into dark hours. Overnight low temps should fall to the 40s for most NJ locations (coasts near-50) with NW winds making it seem even colder.

Sunday (Oct 8) high temperatures should struggle to break 60 after starting out in the 40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and fallish flat-bottom clouds. Humidity should feel very low. Winds should gradually change in direction from NW to W…breezy, possibly gusty at times, leading to an even colder wind chill factor. Overnight lows should fall to the 40s for most NJ locations, possibly upper-30s for NNJ elevations and SNJ pine barrens.

An early look at next week indicates the colder and drier conditions lasting at least into next weekend. Daily high temperatures likely capped in the mid-to-upper 60s. Overnight lows down to the upper-30s/40s. Little-to-no rain. Crisp days and damp nights. A traditional fall feel in NJ as foliage kicks-up. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™