Transitional Conditions (Sept 28-Oct 2)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 27, 2020 22:28

Transitional Conditions (Sept 28-Oct 2)

Discussion: For the next few days we’ll be stuck in a warm sector formed by high pressure out in the Atlantic and the approaching trough. The high will kick in warm and humid return flow. The front of the trough will feature several unorganized disturbances with decent rainfall. With that said, Monday-Wednesday looks warm, humid and unsettled (rain and possibly thunderstorms). Thursday-forward (including the weekend) should feel very seasonal with cool and crisp temperatures accompanying lower humidity. Once the trough moves into the E US, negative 500mb geopotential height anomalies are showing for much of the first part of October. In theory this should keep temperatures colder but with slightly unsettled skies at times. The warm and humid to cool and crisp transition was mentioned on Friday in the weekend outlook. It now seems that Thursday will be the first day of noticeable change however not Wednesday. So push that right by one day. Other than that, I’m looking forward to the seasonal change.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (Sept 28) high temperatures should reach near-80 with a humid feel. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain possible into afternoon hours. AM hours could start foggy. Skies should improve for the rest of PM hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s.

Tuesday (Sept 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s with a continued humid feel. Skies should be mostly cloudy with another chance for AM fog. Showers, even a thunderstorm, are possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s with rain picking up intensity.

Wednesday (Sept 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more rain showers around. Thunderstorms are possible for PM hours. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s.

Thursday (Oct 1) high temperatures should reach near-70 with low humidity. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to mid-50s from elevations to sea.  

Friday (Oct 2) high temperatures should struggle to even break 65. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated showers possible. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range from 30s to 40s from elevations to sea.

An early look at the weekend indicates cool and crisp conditions sustaining. Highs in the 60s. Lows in 30s/40s. Mostly sunny/clear skies. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 27, 2020 22:28