Transitional Conditions

Jonathan Carr
By November 11, 2021 16:03

Transitional Conditions

Discussion: First, a thank you to all who have served our country! A low pressure system has pulled off the upper-jet with an occlusion at the surface. As this low tracks from the Great Lakes into SE Canada, it will rip an attached cold front through on Friday. The front could push rain and possibly thunderstorms through NJ from SW to NE (in general) between early Friday AM and early Friday afternoon (likely ending by noonish). Then we see a little break Friday evening into Saturday morning. For Saturday night a trailing mid-to-upper level disturbance is expected to pass through brining periods of colder (non-thunderstorm) rain. Sunday will finally be the step down to colder conditions as some unsettled NW flow conditions try to push through (mostly colder flow but can’t rule out a stray shower). The pre-Thanksgiving synoptic storm signal is still there for the ~Nov 22 timeframe but it is not a snowy signal for NJ. Maybe for W PA into upstate NY. But for NJ, likely cold rain with maybe flakes mixing for NWNJ elevations at the coldest case. There is no major snowstorm expected in NJ right before Thanksgiving.

Friday (Nov 12) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s and likely before afternoon. Skies should start cloudy with periods of light rain in the early AM hours. Then, eventually a heavier area of rain (possibly with t-storms), should push through between sunrise and noon-ish. Let’s allow until afternoon to be conservative but once that ends, the rest of Friday should be much drier. Wind should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (Nov 13) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas. Skies should start out dry but periods of rain are possible during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from N to S as everyone dries out.

Sunday (Nov 14) high temperatures should struggle to break 50 statewide. Skies should start mixed with sun and clouds but transition cloudier towards evening/overnight hours. A stray shower is possible during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week indicates temperatures more seasonal. The week should start colder until about Wednesday. Then Thursday looks like the warmest day where temps could break 60 but all other days likely in the 50s. Overnight temps down to 30-40 range for most. Little rainfall is modeled nor expected with the setup.

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Jonathan Carr
By November 11, 2021 16:03